The severity of overcapacity and the core of the problem in the where

Original Title: Overcapacity is widespread, spreading from traditional industries to new industries. The current overcapacity has structural and institutional characteristics, overcapacity resolution is more complex, more difficult to resolve. Local government administrative forces to promote a new round of overcapacity is an important reason, while the economic operation of the volatility of the contraction of domestic and external demand and exacerbated overcapacity. In addition, low policy effectiveness and insufficient information on government services can also trigger overcapacity. Resolving overcapacity is firstly to establish a capacity utilization assessment and early warning system and to reform industrial regulation ideas; secondly, different regulatory methods should be adopted for overcapacity of different natures; thirdly, to reduce the investment and expansion impulses of local governments; and fourthly, to effectively push forward mergers and reorganization of overcapacity industries.　　In the international economic downturn and our country into the transformation and upgrading stage of the background, China's current demand and production contradictions are prominent, industrial overcapacity problem is becoming increasingly prominent, the industrial sector showed signs of deflation, overcapacity problem has a generalized, and part of the industry and even appeared in the absolute surplus. How to resolve the contradiction of overcapacity? China should actively learn from the relevant international experience, change the industrial control policy, weaken the local government investment impulse, to resolve overcapacity as China's economic restructuring work of the top priority.　　The current situation of China's overcapacity 1, overcapacity is universal, spreading from traditional industries to emerging industries With the slowdown in economic growth, China's industrial production overcapacity problem is increasingly prominent. 2013 quarter of industrial enterprise capacity utilization rate of only 78.2%, a year-on-year drop of 1.6 percentage points, compared with the fourth quarter of last year fell 1.9 percentage points, is the lowest point since the fourth quarter of 2009. The lowest point since the fourth quarter of 2009. The capacity utilization rate of some major industries has dropped to below 75%. Among them, the capacity utilization rates of building materials, railroad and ship transportation equipment manufacturing and coal mining industry were 72.5%, 73.6% and 74.9% respectively.　　Overcapacity exists in traditional industries such as iron and steel, cement, non-ferrous metals, flat glass, petrochemicals and home appliances, and some of them even have long-term and absolute overcapacity. Statistics show that in 2012, China's iron and steel industry overcapacity reached 21%; cement overcapacity reached 28%; non-ferrous metal capacity utilization rate has dropped from 90% in 2007 to about 65%, and part of the industry has even appeared in absolute and long-term overcapacity, electrolytic aluminum overcapacity reached 35%; automobile overcapacity was 12%. On the other hand, strategic emerging industries, such as photovoltaic industry also exists overcapacity. At present, China's solar photovoltaic cell production capacity accounts for 60% of the world, wind power equipment production capacity of 30-35 million kilowatts, while the production of only 18 million kilowatts, the capacity utilization rate of less than 60%, photovoltaic cell overcapacity reached 95%. Such a wide range, large-scale overcapacity if not effectively resolved, will make China's industry into a long-term depression.　　2, the current overcapacity has structural and institutional characteristics Unlike the financial crisis in 2000 and 2009 by the impact of the "cyclical overcapacity", also different from 2003-2004 and 2006 before and after the overheating in the economy under the "non-cyclical overcapacity China's current overcapacity problem reflects both the disconnection between the supply structure and the demand structure caused by the long-term rough economic development mode, resulting in the formation of "structural overcapacity", such as the automobile industry, and the "institutional overcapacity" inherited from the incomplete reform of China's market economic system and investment and financing system, such as the automobile industry. "Institutional overcapacity", such as iron and steel, cement and other industries; due to over-reliance on investment and exports to promote economic growth led to local overcapacity, such as photovoltaic industry.　　3, overcapacity dissolution is more complex, more difficult to dissolve the current risks and challenges facing China's economic operation is very large: downward pressure on economic growth intensified requirements for macroeconomic policy to maintain stability, with the transformation and upgrading of structural adjustment requirements of the reform efforts to increase the formation of contradictions; the national economic layout and industrial planning a plate of chess co-ordination, with the market economy requires the diversification of the investment and financing system to form a contradiction; the lack of vitality of the domestic demand can't The lack of vitality of domestic demand can not meet the economic growth, and the peripheral economic and trade situation, resulting in the export-driven model is no longer applicable to form a contradiction. At this stage of the overcapacity problem is not a single deep-seated reasons, both by the system, the environment, resources and other universally applicable factors, but also by the specific characteristics of the industry's own development, the degree of complexity to increase the difficulty of resolving.　　Analysis of the causes of the current overcapacity 1, local government administrative forces to promote a new round of overcapacity is an important reason Local governments in the overcapacity played a more active role. Iron and steel, cement, shipbuilding and other basic manufacturing industry, the scale of investment is huge, if there is no local government support, or direct investment, private capital is usually reluctant to get involved. Even polysilicon, wind power equipment, new materials and other emerging industries, and the local government's active promotion is also closely related to the 2009 National Ten Industry Revitalization Plan, the local government, regardless of local realities, but also actively introduce preferential policies to encourage, support, will inevitably result in the phenomenon of duplication of investment in industries across the country is serious, and therefore ultimately overcapacity is not unexpected. To the steel industry, for example, China's iron and steel production capacity has been greater than the market demand of 120 million tons, but there are still under construction capacity of 70 million tons. "Eleventh Five-Year" period, China's automobile production capacity more than double the actual demand, there has been a surplus of 2 million units, but there is still under construction capacity of 2.2 million units, is brewing and planning for the new on the capacity of 8 million units. The fundamental reason is that, similar to steel, cement and other large projects investment, fit the local government economic behavior of the short-term tendency, in the short term can raise the local GDP, catering to the GDP as the core of the performance appraisal requirements.　　2, the volatility of economic operation, the contraction of domestic demand and external demand exacerbated overcapacity In order to cope with the financial crisis in 2008, China introduced a 4 trillion package of economic stimulus policies, coupled with the local relevant supporting policies and funds, the scale of the economic stimulus is far more than 4 trillion, China's production capacity has expanded rapidly. China's consumption and investment demand growth has slowed down, consumption and investment growth rate have appeared a certain decline, the slowdown in domestic demand is also difficult to digest the current large-scale production capacity, overcapacity. Five years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, Europe, the United States and Japan, the momentum of economic recovery in developed economies is still insufficient, emerging economies are facing inflation and growth decline in the situation, resulting in a significant contraction of foreign demand in our country, it is difficult to dissolve the current apparent excess capacity.　　3, the effectiveness of the policy is not high, the lack of information on government services triggered by overcapacity Information asymmetry caused by the local government, enterprises can not be based on adequate information to make scientific planning or rational investment decisions. There is a serious information asymmetry between enterprises, may cause all enterprises to invest in the sum of production capacity over the future market demand, many enterprises in order to avoid the loss of market opportunities, production capacity planning are generally moderately ahead of market demand, cellar part of the production capacity, resulting in market demand peak before the arrival of overcapacity.　　Adjust the idea of multi-pronged approach to resolve overcapacity 1, the establishment of capacity utilization assessment and early warning system, reform of industrial regulation and control of ideas First, the existing enterprise statistics, boom index analysis and capacity utilization evaluation combined, and gradually establish a unified industry overcapacity assessment index system and early warning system, so that enterprises and investors timely and accurate understanding of the industry's production capacity and related information, rational decision-making into or out of the market! Behavior, commercial banks accordingly control the direction and scale of credit investment, to prevent over-investment, to avoid financial risks; Second, the approval system to the economic scale as the main basis for approval into a social control-based approach, and to energy resources, environmental protection and production safety as a prerequisite, the regulatory approach should also be from the front of the pre-approval, change to the process of supervision and after the incident to improve the level of regulation and control.　　2, on the different nature of the excess capacity, should take different methods of regulation of "technologically backward, decentralized, small-scale, illegal production" of enterprises, in accordance with national laws and regulations, shut down, eliminated, to prevent such enterprises in the market in the short-term demand booming, rising prices, "resurgent ". Structural defects caused by the "low level" of excess capacity to implement "with pressure" control measures, the use of credit, fiscal and tax, prices and other economic policy leverage "to support the good and eliminate the bad", to guide the industry's internal structural adjustment; for the purchase of the "low level" of excess capacity due to the purchase of the "low level" of excess capacity. Structural adjustment within the industry; due to the low level of purchasing power, the lack of effective demand generated by the relative overcapacity and phased overcapacity in some industries, to strengthen planning and guidance to improve enterprise concentration, and guide enterprises to stand at the forefront of technological advances, in line with the trend of product upgrading and restructuring.　　3, reduce the local government's investment expansion impulse Reform to assess GDP growth as the focus of the government performance appraisal and promotion system for officials, to eliminate the strong incentives for local governments to improperly intervene in business investment. Local government performance appraisal can be legislated, from the main assessment of GDP indicators to a comprehensive and objective assessment of the level of government governance, from the government's internal self-assessment to a combination of internal and external assessment, so that the public opinion has more right to participate in the public opinion; more to the quality of economic development, energy and resource consumption and comprehensive development of people and other indicators to reflect; optimize the distribution of financial and tax revenue between the central government and the local government, so that the local government's financial strength and authority to match, weakening local governments' incentives to invest; and promoting the transparency and democratization of local finances. All acts involving government subsidies, tax incentives or rebates, and the provision of preferential loans should be publicly announced and transparent. At the same time, local governments are strictly prohibited from giving enterprises growth targets.　　4, promote the merger and reorganization of overcapacity industry First, consider promoting state-owned asset management by industry. To go beyond the level of supervision and management of state-owned assets by enterprise, consider the management of state-owned assets by industry. If state-funded enterprises have homogeneous competition, vicious competition will lead to difficulties in preserving and increasing the value of state-owned assets, according to the will of the enterprise and the market feasibility, consider merger and reorganization or withdrawal of part of the capital; Secondly, support the inter-regional merger and reorganization of local state-owned enterprises, as well as the participation of private enterprises in the reorganization of state-owned enterprises. In terms of financial and tax allocation, after the merger and reorganization of enterprises, the original tax payment channels will remain unchanged instead of unified tax payment, and the VAT and income tax will be implemented as "unified calculation, hierarchical management, local pre-payment, and centralized settlement"; explore the establishment of a system of separate statistics on the division of tax and output value for cross-regional mergers and acquisitions; and, thirdly, enable the state-owned capital to enter the high-end production links of strategic emerging industries and master the core technology, as well as the state-owned capital in the restructuring of state-owned enterprises. Thirdly, the state-owned capital into the high-end production links of strategic emerging industries, mastering the core technology, forming a leading and demonstration role, so that more state-owned enterprises are willing to enter the field of high-end industries through capital restructuring.