What schools of decision theory are there? How to evaluate?

Decision theory decision theory (theory? Yes? Decide? Decision/decision? Theory)? It is a relatively complete theoretical system about decision-making process, criteria, types and methods, which is formed by comprehensively applying system theory, operational research and computer science developed after the Second World War to management decision-making problems. Decision theory has formed a school of decision theory represented by herbertsimon, the Nobel laureate in economics. Decision-making theory is the general name of decision-making concepts, principles and theories. The word "decision" usually refers to making a choice and decision from a variety of possibilities. The theory of administrative decision is the theoretical basis for guiding and explaining administrative decision. ? View the wonderful atlas catalogue

Theoretical formation?

Representative theory?

Completely rational decision theory?

Continuous finite comparative decision theory?

Rationality and organizational decision theory?

Realistic progressive decision theory?

Irrational decision theory: the viewpoint of decision theory?

Development trend?

Basic point?

What is the basic point of Simon's decision theory?

Comment on Simon's Decision Theory?

The contribution of Simon's decision theory?

What are the limitations of Simon's decision theory and its formation?

Representative theory?

Completely rational decision theory?

Continuous finite comparative decision theory?

Rationality and organizational decision theory?

Realistic progressive decision theory?

Irrational decision theory: the viewpoint of decision theory?

Development trend?

Basic point?

What is the basic point of Simon's decision theory?

Comment on Simon's Decision Theory?

The contribution of Simon's decision theory?

The limitations of Simon's decision theory have been expanded and edited. The theory of this paragraph formed the theory of administrative decision-making, which was formed in the 1930s and 1940s. Who first put forward the viewpoint of administrative decision?

Books related to decision theory

Is an American scholar L. Gulick. In the article "Organization Theory", he thinks that decision-making is one of the main functions of administrative management. Later, American scholar C.I. Barnard thought that administrative decision-making was an important strategic factor to achieve organizational goals in his book The Function of Executive Leadership. These views have a great influence on the later administrative decision-making theory. However, the formation of the theoretical system of administrative decision-making and its important position in administrative science were realized by the American administrative scientist H.A. Simon. 1944, he put forward the outline of decision-making theory for the first time in the article Decision-making and Administrative Organization. Three years later, he published "Administrative Behavior-Research on Decision-making Procedures in Administrative Organizations", which became the earliest monograph on decision-making theory. Since then, he has continued to study decision-making theory and practical decision-making technology (including operational research and computer science), laying the foundation for decision-making to become a new management discipline. ?

The editors in this section represent the concepts, principles and theories of decision-making theory. The word "decision" usually refers to making a choice and decision from a variety of possibilities. The theory of administrative decision is the theoretical basis for guiding and explaining administrative decision. ? There are many theories of administrative decision-making, and different scholars explain the problems from different angles. Representative theories include the following. ?

Completely rational decision-making theory is also called objective rational decision-making theory. Representative figures are British economist J. Bentham and American scientific management?

Herbert simon, the master of decision theory.

Home f.w. Taylor, etc. They believe that man is an economic man who insists on pursuing the greatest value. Economic man has maximum rationality and can make the best choice to achieve organizational and personal goals. Its performance in decision-making is: before making a decision, all actions and their effects can be fully considered; According to their own value standards, decision makers choose the actions with the greatest value as countermeasures. This theory only assumes that people make decisions under complete rationality, not in the state of actual decision-making. ?

Simon is a representative of continuous finite comparative decision theory. He believes that people's actual actions can't be completely rational, and decision makers are administrators with limited rationality. It is impossible to foresee all the results, so they can only choose a "satisfactory" plan from the alternatives. When "executors" simplify their views on the administrative environment, they often can't grasp all kinds of complex factors in the decision-making environment, but only see a limited number of schemes and some of their results. In fact, the degree of rationality has a great influence on decision makers, but the role of organizational factors in decision-making can not be ignored. ?

The representative of rationality and organizational decision-making theory is American organizational scholar J.G. March. He admits the existence of individual rationality, and thinks that human rationality is limited by individual wisdom and ability, so it must rely on the role of organization. By organizing the division of labor, each decision-maker can clarify his work and learn more about the action plan and action results. Organizations provide certain guidance for individuals, so that decision-making has a clear direction. Organizations use power and communication methods to make it easy for decision makers to choose favorable action plans, thus increasing the rationality of decision-making. The basis for measuring the rationality of decision makers is organizational goals rather than personal goals. ?

The representative of realistic progressive decision theory is American political economist C.E. Linde blom. The basic point of his theory is not human rationality, but the reality that people face, and gradually change it. In his view, decision makers can't have all the wisdom of human beings and all the information about decision-making, and the time and cost of decision-making are limited. Therefore, decision makers can only adopt the method of coping with the situation and make decisions in "biased mutual adjustment". This theory requires the decision-making procedure to be simplified, the decision-making is feasible and meets the requirements of interest groups, thus solving practical problems. This theory emphasizes reality and gradual change, which has attracted the attention of administrative decision makers. ?

The representatives of irrational decision theory are Austrian psychologist S Floyd and Italian sociologist V Pareto. Should I manage?

theory of decision-making

The basic point of this theory is neither man's rationality nor the reality that man faces, but man's lust. They believe that people's behavior is largely dominated by the subconscious mind, and many decision-making behaviors often show unconscious and irrational lust, which shows that decision makers often use emotions when dealing with problems, thus making unwise arrangements. ? The development trend of administrative decision-making theory is: ① emphasizing the influence of human judgment on decision-making. For example, behavioral decision theory discusses the method of decision makers seeking suboptimal behavior; Social judgment theory holds that decision makers are influenced by different environments, which will lead to inaccurate judgment; Attribution decision theory emphasizes that under the action of environmental variables, decision makers will be influenced by accidental factors. ② Expanding the application scope of administrative decision theory. For example, applying the decision-making method to the effectiveness analysis of administrative management; Introducing decision theory into the study of sudden crisis; Apply decision theory to the field of policy analysis, and study the reasons and opportunities of policy mistakes. ?

The viewpoint decision theory of this decision theory is developed on the basis of system theory and absorbs the research results of behavioral science, operational research and computer science. Sima He, an American, is the main representative. His representative works include: Management Behavior, Decision Theory of Organizational Economics and Behavioral Science, and New Science of Management Decision-making. Simon won the 1978 Nobel Prize in Economics for his pioneering research in decision theory research and decision application. The viewpoint of decision theory is mainly manifested in three aspects:?

1) Highlight the position of decision-making in management. Decision management theory holds that the essence of management is decision-making, which runs through the whole process of management and determines the success or failure of the whole management activity. If the decision-making is wrong, no matter how rich the resources and advanced the technology are, it will not help. ?

2) The decision-making principle is expounded systematically. Simon made a scientific analysis of decision-making procedures, standards, types and decision-making skills, put forward the "satisfaction principle" to replace the "optimal principle" of traditional decision-making theory, and studied the solutions to conflicts in the decision-making process. ?

3) Emphasize the role of decision makers. People think that an organization is a system composed of individual decision makers. Therefore, it is emphasized that we should not only attach importance to the application of new scientific methods such as quantitative methods and calculation techniques, but also attach importance to the role of social factors such as psychological factors and interpersonal relationships in decision-making. ?

The development trend of editing this passage is the development trend of administrative decision theory:

1. Emphasize the influence of people's judgment on decision-making. ?

For example, behavioral decision theory discusses the method of decision makers seeking suboptimal behavior; Social judgment theory holds that decision makers are influenced by different environments, which will lead to inaccurate judgment; Attribution decision theory emphasizes that under the action of environmental variables, decision makers will be influenced by accidental factors. ?

2. The application scope of administrative decision theory has been expanded. ?

For example, applying the decision-making method to the effectiveness analysis of administrative management; Introducing decision theory into the study of sudden crisis; Apply decision theory to the field of policy analysis, and study the reasons and opportunities of policy mistakes. ?

What are the main points of editing this paragraph?

Books related to decision theory

The basic viewpoint of Simon's decision theory 1. Decision-making runs through the whole process of management. Management is decision-making?

(1) decision theory is a new stage in the development of management theory?

(2) Is an organization a system composed of individuals as decision makers?

(3) All management activities of an organization are decision-making?

2. decision-making is a process?

(1) intelligence?

(2) Design activities?

(3) Choose an activity?

(4) Review activities?

3. Should decision-making adopt "bounded rationality"?

(1) The criterion of "absolute rationality" of economic man?

(2) The behavior of people in an organization is the behavior of "managers" with limited rationality, taking tasks as the center, and rationally choosing means to achieve certain goals?

(3) bounded rationality leads managers to seek "satisfaction" or "satisfaction" measures?

4. Decision-making can be divided into fixed decision-making and non-fixed decision-making, with different decision-making techniques?

theory of decision-making

(1) What is the type of decision?

(2) the technology of decision-making?

5. What is the relationship between decision-making and organization, centralization and decentralization, and information connection?

(1) The division of the organization must be based on the type of decision to be made?

(2) centralization and decentralization cannot exist in isolation from the decision-making process?

(3) Both the line leader and the staff have decision-making problems?

(4) Any process in which the decision-making premise is passed from one organization member to another?

Comment on Simon's Decision Theory 1. Contribution of decision theory?

2. What are the limitations of decision theory?

The contribution of Simon's decision theory (1) is to give a high theoretical summary of complex management activities, fully consider the whole field of management and its environment, and make management theory focus on decision-making. ?

(2) The system structure of decision theory can provide managers with systematic methods to analyze and solve problems. It encourages managers to discover and explore all kinds of potential countermeasures and possible natural conditions, and can make full use of all kinds of scientific knowledge and technical means to form a more comprehensive and systematic management method and technology, so that management has certain operability. ?

(3) The bounded rationality standard of managers (or decision makers) has considerable objectivity, feasibility and strong practical significance for the management decision of industrial and commercial enterprises. ?

Limitations of Simon's decision theory (1) If decision theory is a mainstream general management theory, it obviously fails to fully reflect the regularity of management activities, lacks the analysis of general management relations and links, and ignores the fact that management work is much more complicated than decision work. Therefore, fundamentally speaking, it also belongs to the management theory of management methods, means or technologies. ?

(2) Simon's decision-making theory is essentially a management decision-making theory, but it does not include the business (or management) decision-making content based on the organizational work of enterprises such as production, sales and capital operation. From this point of view, like other management theories, it is not closely integrated with the business activities of enterprises and cannot become the mainstream theory of enterprise management theory.