2020 Final Season

From the association as well as the car companies have released the "golden nine" sales data can be seen in the traditional peak season, the domestic market also ushered in the harvest.

Data show that as of September, this year's automobile production and sales have been six consecutive months of growth, sales are five consecutive months of growth rate of more than 10%. Among them, the "Golden Nine" month passenger cars, commercial vehicles and new energy vehicles have set a new record. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, deputy secretary-general Chen Shihua pointed out that, from the economy, policy, market and other aspects of the comprehensive consideration, 2020 may be the bottom of China's automobile market peak year, 2021 will be expected to achieve a return to positive growth.

So, what kind of report card will the auto market deliver in 2020 after experiencing a brief pause, bucking the trend of growth, and a "deep V" trend?

Association: the annual decline is expected to narrow to single digits

According to the production and sales data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), with the epidemic prevention and control and the economic recovery has achieved positive results, production and supply to speed up the recovery of the market demand gradually recovered in September, automobile production and sales have shown a double-digit increase in cumulative automobile production and sales decline has been narrowed to less than 7%, the industry recovery situation continues to improve.

In this context, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) deputy chief engineer Xu Haidong also pointed out that the domestic auto market from April gradually recovered from the epidemic, the third quarter of the automobile market appeared 380,000 year-on-year increment, showing a "deep V" trend. "Influenced by the improvement of statistical enterprise fundamentals since the third quarter, the domestic auto market recovery is better than expected, the annual auto sales decline will be less than 10%."

Meanwhile, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, also said that in the fourth quarter of the host factory and dealers in previous years will rush sales, so the annual sales will continue to be strong. "Whether it's passenger cars or commercial vehicles, the data will look better in the fourth quarter, and the car market will see a clear V-shaped trend. However, due to the first half of the sales decline, the full-year sales will still be negative growth."

Specifically, because last year's fourth quarter is closer to the Spring Festival of 2020, so the wave of car purchases appeared in the fourth quarter of 2019, while this year's Spring Festival may lead to consumption hotspots in January 2021. So sales in the fourth quarter of this year are relatively strong overall, but compared with last year, the growth is not particularly strong.

In addition, Shen Jinjun, president of the China Automobile Dealers Association, also said that since April this year, the market decline has narrowed month by month, and China's auto market has clearly appeared a V shape. In the future, the warming trend of the domestic auto market will continue.

Institutions: the market will usher in a new round of growth

In the context of automotive consumer demand continues to be unleashed, auto stocks have also ushered in a wave of dividends. Some data show that in the first week of October, 56 listed companies in the automotive industry (62 stocks) grew by an average of 2.34%, with a cumulative increase of 78.761 billion yuan in one-week market capitalization.

Which, passenger car plate shares rose an average of 4.9%, an increase of 105.6 billion yuan in market value; dealer groups, commercial vehicle plate shares rose an average of 2.26% and 3.86%; new energy and parts plate shares fell slightly by 0.5% on average. On the broader market, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index were in the red across the board, up 1.96 percent, 1.83 percent and 1.11 percent, respectively.

In this context, institutions are also more optimistic about the fourth quarter and annual market expectations. Wanlian Securities pointed out that the sales data reflect the industry's rapid rebound, as the economy continues to recover steadily, consumer confidence gradually improved, is expected to next domestic automobile is expected to maintain the accelerated recovery trend.

Anxin Securities believes that the foreign car market in the adjustment period is still in a fairly long period of time to maintain a compound growth rate of 2-5%, the future of the domestic is expected to gradually form a strong purchasing power of the consumer market, which in turn promote the further growth of the car market, the medium and long term look at the domestic automobile 1,000 people to Japan and South Korea to see, the car market to maintain a compound growth rate of 2-5%.

In addition, as the main form of future development of car companies, organizations generally believe that China's new energy automotive industry production and sales will continue to grow. Huajin Securities believes that this year's new energy production and sales are expected to exceed 1.1 million units. CRE Securities maintains the previous judgment of 1.09 million units, but is expected to usher in 2021, the 2009 peak of the end-of-life trade-in and 2016 peak of the second-hand trade-in, the industry will usher in an upward cycle.

At the same time, Bohai Securities also mentioned that the European region has become the global new energy vehicles to realize the growth of an important "engine", the domestic global competitiveness and actively layout of the overseas market of high-quality new energy industry chain leading standard will continue to fully benefit.

Car companies: positive growth is the direction of efforts

In the general trend of a good situation, into the fourth quarter, car companies also opened the end of the year sprint.

Xu Dezhi, deputy director of the marketing department of Changan Mazda Auto Sales Branch, pointed out in an exclusive interview with Buycar that although the epidemic in the first quarter had an impact on the whole year, the annual market or in a state of year-on-year decline, but the car market from July and August began to show a warming trend, in this context, the fourth quarter is still worth looking forward to.

"Changan Mazda, for example, from the second quarter, the brand in April-August sales growth of 25 percent year-on-year, better than the performance of the industry as a whole. From the fourth quarter or the end of the year, we believe that the overall market performance is still in a state of recovery. Realizing positive growth is the direction of effort, and the brand is expected to hit higher sales." Xu Dezhi said so.

Meanwhile, Fu Qiang, senior director of network development and management of the Volkswagen brand marketing business at SAIC Volkswagen Automobile Co, Ltd, also put forward the same viewpoint. He said, "The current macro-economy is gradually improving, and the purchasing power of consumers is also gradually improving, pushing the car market to gradually pick up. At present, the recovery of the car market in the third quarter is still relatively fast, but affected by last year's relatively high base, it is predicted that the market in the fourth quarter will be slightly lower than the same period last year."

Liu Zhenjian, head of the marketing section of the first business headquarters of Guangzhou Automobile Honda Automobile Sales Co. Ltd, believes that, at present, the overall situation of the industry is still relatively severe. The first quarter is in the midst of an epidemic, the second and third quarters, although the overall car market has warmed up, but there are some losses, the overall car market is expected to be still negative growth for the whole of this year.

It can be seen, in the car market a good situation, the industry generally believe that the fourth quarter of the auto market will usher in a new round of development, and behind the sales growth, the annual performance will also be better than expected. It is foreseeable that in the future, in the market demand is gradually released, to promote automobile consumption policies continue to launch as well as the car companies terminal force under the background, the auto market will usher in a new round of growth.

This article comes from the author of the automobile home car family number, does not represent the views of the automobile home position.