Gaming the Three Kingdoms and Warping the World: After the Exit of the Divisional Table

In the spring of 228 A.D., Zhuge Liang lured the troops to the Xiegu Valley and the Qishan Mountain to conquer the three counties on the right side of the Long River and deter Guanzhong. But because Ma Su lost the street pavilion, the first northern expedition failed.

In the winter of this year, Zhuge Liang prepared for another northern expedition.

At the time of the expedition, Zhuge Liang wrote a letter to Liu Chan, the emperor of Shu Han, refuting the idea of slacking off on the battlefield and explaining the reasons for Shu Han's northern expedition, which led to the "Post-Division Expedition Table". This article, eloquent words progressive, strategic analysis of reasoning thorough. The big vision, big pattern, and big strategy flashed in it are worth reading and savoring even today.

The first part, the beginning, is the cause of the Northern Expedition.

First, "the Han thieves and the two sides, the king's industry is not partial security", the northern expedition is the legitimacy of the Shu Han regime.

Secondly, "this is why the ministers and not doubt", the northern expedition is the last order of the late emperor.

Third, "but sit and wait for the death, who with the logging", the northern expedition is forced by the situation.

Fourth, "the thief is tired in the west, and in the east", the time is ripe for the Northern Expedition.

The second part of the article analyzes the reasoning, rebuttal of the Northern Expedition non-negotiable.

The second part of the article analyzes the reasoning and refutes the criticism of the Northern Expedition.

The deaths of Liu Yao and Wang Lang without a fight refute the victory of the long strategy.

Cao Cao's difficult start-up argues for the inevitability of danger and then determination.

Using Cao Cao's frustrating campaigns to emphasize that failure cannot stop the northern expedition.

With the decline of Shu Han's military strength, it is clear that delaying the Northern Expedition will not help the enemy.

With the situation of "the people are poor and the troops are tired" and the weighing of "labor and expenses", he refuted the fallacy of "lasting with the thieves".

Cao Cao's conquest of the world

The third part, summarizing the speech, discusses the fate of heaven and human resources.

It is difficult to see the things of the world in reverse, and it is inevitable that the eye will see and soon is not: Cao Cao pats his hand, but the success of the failure in the Red Cliffs; Han things will come to fruition, but by the "Wu more violation of the alliance, the Guan Yu destroyed".

Everything is so, difficult to predict, so can only plan things in the people, things in the sky, so, for the ministers, can only "bow and exhaustion, and then die", as for the success or failure of the blunt, but with the fate of the heavens.

After the Yellow Turban Uprising, the curtain of chaos at the end of the Han Dynasty was formally raised.

After the Yellow Turban Rebellion, the curtain of chaos was officially raised.

After this curtain, the land of China was full of bloodshed and swords, but no rites and music, and Lei Yue. The bones were exposed in the wild, and no chickens crowed for thousands of miles. The people of China were left with nothing, and their hearts were broken by the thought of it.

To the three points of the world, the situation of the warring lords finally evolved into a relatively stable situation, namely, Wei, Shu, Wu, the three tripods.

The Three Kingdoms situation

So the question arises: is the tripod a sustainable and stable situation?

First of all, let's be clear: the Triple Alliance is more orderly, more peaceful, and more stable than the previous world war. It is an improvement that the world has moved from a group of warring factions to a three-way game.

And the three parties in the game have to look at whether the situation is sustainable, where they are in the situation, and what kind of strategy they should adopt.

So Zhuge Liang stood in the position of the Shu Han regime to re-examine this new three-part world. The big heroes who can move the history walk, first of all, must have the vision of recognizing the game pattern. Zhuge Liang is such a great hero. So, what kind of conclusion did he come to?

For the Shu Han regime, three worlds is not only unstable, but also extremely unfavorable.

According to the "Longzhong Pairing" proposition, Liu Bei forces need to sit in possession of the two states of Jing and Yizhou, in order to rival Cao Wei, that is, to occupy today's Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei and other vast areas of the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and then, the United States to attack the Wei, all the way to the east out of the Qinchuan, all the way out of the west of the Jingzhou, the two way to the attack, then the hegemony can be accomplished.

Longzhong pair if across the Jing, Yi, to protect its rock resistance, the West and the Rong, the South and Yi Yue, outside the good Sun Quan, internal repair of governance; the world has changed, the order of a general will be the Jingzhou army to Wan, Luo, general rate of the people out of the state of the Qinchuan, the people who would not dare not fandan pots of milk to meet the generals of the people? The first thing I want to do is to make sure that I have a good understanding of what I'm doing and what I'm doing.

But now the Shu Han regime, can only barely sit in Yizhou, Jingzhou by Cao Wei and Wu divided. Therefore, under the pattern of three worlds, Shu Han was extremely weak, not only unable to compete with Cao Wei, but even less than Sun Wu.

The first sentence of "The Table of the Exit of the Division" is "The first emperor's business was not yet half and demise in the middle of the road, and today the three points of the world, Yizhou is tired, and this is the autumn of the survival of the crisis".

This is the definition of Zhuge Liang on the current game pattern, the situation is not sustainable, and in their own detriment, "this is a critical survival of the fall also".

And "after the division table" of several words, such as "now the people are poor and tired", "the king's industry is also dead", "but sit and wait for the death", but also exposed Zhuge Liang's sense of urgency. Such a situation, continue, Shu Han result is a word - "death". Zhuge Liang's game means

In the three worlds of the game rules, Shu Han's final result is the death of the country. So, as the prime minister of Shu Han, Zhuge Liang will take what game means?

The means is very simple, one word "fight", two words "war", four words "Northern Expedition to the Central Plains", and then more specific is The first word is "fight", the second word is "war", and the fourth word is "northern expedition to the Central Plains".

Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition to the Central Plains

War is brutal because people have to die; war is also expensive because it costs money. In addition, war is uncertain, under the rule of reality, Shu Han can still barely maintain; while the war together, Shu Han may be destroyed in one battle. Sun Tzu said:Soldiers, the country's major events, the land of the dead, the way of survival, can not be ignored.

So, the war is the product of irreconcilable political contradictions, often as a last resort, is the last kill.

So, we have to ask: in addition to war can not take other methods? For example, the "no war and give up the army", such as "long strategy to win", such as "sit in the world".

The answer to the question is no. Here, we are not going to repeat the eloquence of Prime Minister Zhuge, but to summarize the rhetoric of the Prime Minister, the abstraction of the "unresolved" six, to provide an interpretive framework from a modern point of view.

First, the alliance between Cao Wei and Wu Shu constituted a "prisoner's dilemma".

Prisoner's dilemma

In this situation, Wu Shu must unite. The reason is simple: Cao Wei is the strongest, with six of the nine states in the world. The reason for this is simple: Cao Wei is the strongest, with six of the nine states under heaven. That is to say, you Shu Han also, you Sun Wu also, simply can not become Cao Wei's game opponent. Even if the Wu Shu bundled together, but only barely supported.

Second, the Prisoner's Dilemma is a zero-sum game.

The game of Go

Why is this a zero-sum game? The history is such that the Qin Dynasty established a political pattern of unification; the geography is such that the closed continent of East Asia is a zero-sum game environment; the culture is such that it is too difficult not to unify the people of the same clan, same race, same language and same language; the suspicion is such that Cao Wei suspects that the Wu Shu will attack it if it becomes stronger, and the Wu Shu also suspects that the Cao Wei will exterminate it if it becomes stronger.

And the more critical factor is: strength does not allow ah! The world's nine states and Cao Wei only six, why not make an effort to complete the unification of the world's martial arts? Cao Wei will never allow Wu Shu to go their own way. Therefore, the situation of the three worlds is relatively stable rather than continuous stability, is a zero-sum game rather than **** win cooperation.

Third, the inevitable strategy of zero-sum game parties is war.

Wei diligently repair war preparations there, the whole army, Wu Shu can be there to develop production, the implementation of benevolence and righteousness? Therefore, the result is that you expand the army, I have to do martial arts; you occupy my city, I slightly your land.

War

In the Prisoner's Dilemma and the zero-sum game, the actions of each side do not depend on itself, but on its opponents. During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union built enough nuclear weapons to destroy the world several times over, and both sides had armies numbering in the tens of millions. The reason for this is that the expansion of armies for war and the manufacture of nuclear weapons are the needs of the game and the means of playing the game of reality. Only this means of game did not develop to the level of war, and then decided the winner - the collapse of the Soviet Union, the dramatic changes in Eastern Europe.

The Cao Wei and Shu Wu alliance is in the middle of a prisoner's dilemma.

The three parties in the prisoner's dilemma are playing a zero-sum game.

In a zero-sum game, war is a necessity for all three parties.

Prime Minister Zhuge's strength lies in the fact that he saw through the game, had the sense to change the game, and immediately resorted to war as a means of playing the game.

Stills of Zhuge Liang

Immediately after pacifying the south, Zhuge went on a northern expedition, and he kept on fighting. If one northern expedition fails, then two northern expeditions, if two fails, then three or four, either in the war or on the way to the war. (Zhuge Liang) and thought that the day of no body, then there is no one who can travel to the Central Plains, resistance to the upper country, it is to use the army does not cease, and repeatedly show its martial arts.

"The use of troops do not cease, repeatedly show its military", this is the history book "Three Kingdoms", Chen Shou Zhuge Liang's evaluation. But Chen Shou really do not appreciate the suffering of the Shu Han regime. The war is not only the active means of game, but also the situation is forced, forced to choose.

First, the alliance between Wu and Shu was not stable.

Guan Yu's defeat in Mecheng

If it was solid enough, there would be no "Wu more violated the alliance, Guan Yu destroyed". And to make the alliance stronger, you have to set a goal for the alliance - to cut down Wei, and find something you have to cooperate on - war.

If you sit on the long strategy, without Cao Wei instigated, Wu Shu will not be born between what nasty things. The result will be that Cao Wei will be able to reap the benefits of the relationship between Qin and the six kingdoms - the six kingdoms will be competing to cede land to Qin to bribe him.

Second, Wei can only get stronger and Shu Han can only get weaker.

The world's nine states and Wei's six

Shu Han's elite soldiers, in the words of Zhu Geliang, "These are the elite of the four sides of the world within a few decades, not all of a state". From Liu Bei's uprising to stay in Qingzhou, and then attached to the Liu table, and then to the Battle of Red Cliffs, is the aggregation of Shu Han elite process, it is really decades of the four sides of the corrective elite. "Not all of a state", simply put, on the weary land of Yizhou, not only no strong soldiers and no tough generals, not geographical discrimination, the key is that there is not enough population base. And sent Shangshulang Li Hu sent the civil book, led by two hundred and eighty thousand households, male and female population of ninety-four million, with armor generals one hundred and twenty-two thousand, the mandarins forty thousand people, rice more than four hundred thousand dendrobiums, gold and silver, two thousand pounds, brocade silk each two hundred thousand, the rest of the things said this.

900,000 people, 10 soldiers, Shu is also more than 1 million people. And Wei? 4.33 million people. And the state of Wu?2.56 million people. Look at the number is enough, we also know why Zhuge Liang said will "sit and wait for the death".

Third, to be a strong hawk, to be the first, to be the first to change the rules of the game.

Sometimes, you have to be a little strong, you have to bluff a little. Because you're weak, you're weak, and if you don't do that, you can't compete.

Hoodlums don't have to be harder than you, but the reason why he can make you afraid is because he is strong, he is strong, he is the first to take over. Maybe, you will fight with him hard, or maybe go to call the police, but most people will let the interests and make peace.

And the reasoning behind Shu Han's Northern Expedition is just that, to be a "rogue", or to use a technical term, a hawk.

Eagle

When this situation, the long policy, sit in the world, is the means of Cao Wei, and never a weak Shu wrist. Shu Han's tactic is to strike first, to be the first to change the rules of the game and break the current balance of power. Zhuge Liang's goal of the first northern expedition is not to settle Luoyang in one battle, but to take the land of Longyue from the hands of Cao Wei, or to further plan for the land of Guanzhong. Realize this goal, and with this capital, "hooligan" can also change "hooligan" means, whitewash into "tycoon" or "gentry The "hooligans" can then change their means to become "tycoons" or "gentry". The first thing that I want to do is to make sure that I have a good idea of what I want to do, and that I have a good idea of what I want to do.

Summary: Zhuge Liang's uncertainty game

How can we achieve one of Wang Jianlin's small goals: first make it a billion.

Wang Jianlin's small goal

There is an easy way to do this, and that is to take 10 billion and deposit it in the bank, and sit back and wait for 100 million in interest.

But what if you don't have 10 billion, then buy a lottery ticket, and buy it with a base of 20 as a multiple.

So buy lottery tickets, not gambling? Then I might as well go buy stocks, which is fine, but if you have less money, you'll have to buy with full leverage, and you'll still have to gamble and take risks. Whether you buy a lottery ticket or a stock, it's a risk, and it's all about pursuing an uncertainty.

In the game of zero-sum game of the Three Kingdoms, Zhuge Liang does not have 10 billion chips in his hand, so he can only choose the uncertainty of the game, full position and leverage to bet on the fate of the country, regardless of the cost of waging war.

Zhuge Liang at sunset

So rather than engaging in the game, Prime Minister Zhuge is redesigning the game.

The three families of Wei, Shu, and Wu were fighting the landlord, and you called for one point, I called for two, and he called for three. So, Zhuge Liang said: so play too tired, let's compare the size, a hand to determine the winners and losers.

The rich and powerful Wei will not agree, and the well-off Wu will not buy it.

Three Landlords

You two don't agree, do you? That's fine, because you are all mortals who only know how to follow the rules, or hide a card or violate them in a small way. But I, Zhuge Liang, want to play a big game, I want to redesign this game. Let's see the points on the battlefield, forcing you to compare size with me.

A war full of uncertainty is a big gamble to win or lose. The first time I've seen this, I've seen it, and I've seen it, and I've seen it, and I've seen it. And the long game of strategy to fight for national strength, Shu Han will lose.

The Sino-Japanese War, Japan played a bet on the war.

Sino-Japanese War

National strength, Japan is not as good as the Qing Dynasty, China's economic output and population are crushing Japan; military strength, Japan is not as good as the Qing Dynasty, the Beiyang Fleet, known as the first in Asia, the world's fourth; the ability to withstand the Japanese is not as good as the Qing Dynasty, Qing Dynasty defeat is not to the end of the country, and the Japanese defeat may be the end of the country. However, Japan just dared to start the war, and won. Sino-Japanese War defeat, completely changed the game situation between China and Japan.

The Russo-Japanese War, Japan again played a bet on the fate of the country's war. National strength, military power, and the ability to withstand is still so bad. However, Japan still provoked the war, and won. After the Russo-Japanese War, completely changed the game situation in East Asia.

Russo-Japanese War battle map

Of course, the sneak attack on Pearl Harbor this bet on the fate of the country's war, but Japan lost, so it can only unconditional surrender, not only faded out of the ranks of the strongest countries, but also basically equivalent to the death of the country.

Prime Minister Zhuge, that's what he wanted. But heaven forbid, Cao Wei is not the Qing Dynasty or Tsarist Russia. Those who play with Mr. Kong Ming are also ruthless.

However, it is worthwhile to read, savor, and think about this book, as it shows the great wisdom and courage of the prime minister.