Economic Issues

Analysis and Judgment of Economic Issues 1. Whether the Greek debt crisis will evolve into the second global financial crisis is affected by the Greek debt crisis, Spain and Portugal have drastically cut their central government expenditures in order to control the debt level. And by the impact of this policy, the domestic political situation in Greece and Spain suddenly rippled. Similar to Greece and Spain, Portugal, Italy, the United Kingdom, and even Japan. If the economy worsens, governments will have to adopt austerity measures in order to save themselves from bankruptcy, and the world economy will fall into a state of deflation. And in a deflationary state, the already high unemployment rate will inevitably increase again, and the increased unemployment rate will further deteriorate economic activities. The formation of economic development and social development of the negative feedback mechanism. And the second problem lies in the fact that for Greece and even Spain, the problem of national indebtedness cannot be solved by cutting the fiscal deficit, and once the economic form deteriorates and government revenues are reduced, the original commitment to debt repayment will not be able to be honored, and the new borrowing will only produce greater indebtedness, dragging more governments that have not been subjected to the debt crisis into it, and finally forming a debt crisis that is contagious to each other, and thus a crisis of world The development of the world economy. The third aspect of the Greek debt crisis is the time dismantling, although it is solved in the short term because of the assistance of the European Union. However, the capital market has been affected by the Greek debt crisis and has fallen sharply. The substantial decline in the capital market will in turn reduce the market's already insufficient liquidity, causing the economy to shrink even more. This in turn will be reflected at the economic and national levels. In terms of whether a second global economic crisis is coming, our position is that the world will be in a state of full-blown crisis in the next year. The trigger event will be the moment when Spain or Portugal announces a national bailout. 2, on the intention and prospects of the western development of the central government at this stage of the central government has introduced an intensive western policy, in this month's central government set the country's efforts to develop Xinjiang after the Chongqing Liangjiang New Area has been approved, and the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Corridor has also been approved. At the same time there is Shaanxi's regional economic stimulus. The western economy has fully entered the era of central government institutional support. Whether the western economy can reproduce the glory of the eastern economy, we are pessimistic about this issue. On the one hand, the traditional heritage of the western market is not supported, which includes two aspects, one is the business consciousness and ideology of the social group; the second is the problem of population density in the west; the second is that the west, although it is also doing its best to vigorously develop the whole country, but the background of the current institutional reform in the west is to do the structural incremental effect rather than all the center of gravity is placed in the west. The second aspect is the central government on the western economy to start the means problem, the central government on the western economy can only rely on the government investment to start, and the central government investment on the one hand, the implementation of the target is relatively narrow, so it may result in a small number of groups to obtain a larger scale of benefits, while the majority of the group can not be directly access to the interests of, and thus exacerbate the local polarization of the rich and the poor. On the third hand, if the investment channels are limited, the entry of central government funds will substantially inhibit the entry of private capital into the field, resulting in the phenomenon of national competition for profits. Thus, it will not have a practical effect. From the situation of Chongqing Municipality, the central government investment will only cause a substantial rise in the real estate market. If we stand in China's economic structural problems, we can think so: the western development is the central government for the excess liquidity funds to find a place to go, to play the liquidity capital precipitation down an initiative; followed by the real estate market control strategy, the central government through the policy of guiding the capital market influx of the west to alleviate the enormous pressure on the real estate market in the east, so that you can keep the real estate market from shrinking, and at the same time can be in the structure of the real estate market, the central government's investment will only cause a substantial rise in the real estate market. Shrinkage, and at the same time can be structured to prevent a regional bubble over-amplification of a balanced measure. 3, on the real estate market control issues in chongqing real estate market control regulations were introduced, basically declared this round of central government control policies fall through. Control by the local government's strong resistance is because, on the one hand, the central government to the GDP assessment system, once the real estate market turnover shrinks, the local government on what no. Secondly, the local government has been spread out, the local government has been spread out, the local government has been spread out. Secondly, the local government has spread the large-scale infrastructure construction, need a lot of money to support, once the real estate market without sales, the land market and tax market will be unimaginable. Not to mention local government development, local government survival is a problem. From a certain point of view, the central government to catch up with the control strategy will be completely placed in the local government on the opposite side of the local government, and now the attitude of the local government has begun to clarify, but if once the policy is immediately released, the current round of the real estate market will begin to rebound like crazy. And once not loose, and the local government to continue the stalemate, but if the real estate and GDP assessment of two-way standard system, the local government will certainly give up the real estate market and the pursuit of GDP. and if the central government has firm confidence, then it will certainly be introduced to the local government's strategy for policy regulation again, and to strengthen the local administrative and real estate market is directly linked to the way of regulation and control. But this kind of regulation is bound to enhance the real estate market rebound crazy degree. 4, monetary policy regulation of our views two years ago in today's still valid, the central government this round of monetary policy regulation of the actual itself can not be called regulation, but only confrontational game in the game strategy. The central government this round of game object is the U.S. government. Therefore, the United States does not raise interest rates in China is not possible to raise interest rates. Aggregate control, the central government will still enlarge the money supply, but the central government will once again raise the bank reserve requirement, under the guidance of loose monetary policy, in the real estate bubble is increasingly expanding on the basis of the central government's strategy is to try to raise the safety threshold of the bank, so the most extreme case is the bank reserve requirement rose to 25%. Regarding the exchange rate issue, because of the European debt crisis caused by the international monetary system changes in the relationship between the value of the euro after a substantial depreciation of the formation of the problem of appreciation, the value of the yuan against the dollar is even more undervalued, so the yuan will inevitably make some concessions in terms of appreciation, we believe that the central government will be able to tolerate the range of appreciation in the range of 5-10%, and appreciation will be possible. May be intermittent, such as 2010 appreciation, 2011, no appreciation, 2012 and then start the appreciation of this strategy to carry out. 5, the global capital market (1) stock market: in the next few months, we are optimistic about the A-share market upward. This round of the global stock market to form a structural market, A shares first rebound, first fall, the United States after the rebound after the fall of such a market order. The next U.S. stock market by the impact of the European Treasury market and the increase in the pressure of the unemployment rate, may continue to pull back, coupled with the reliance on loose monetary policy to stimulate the disappearance of false economic growth benefits, the U.S. economy may accelerate the decline, which will stimulate the U.S. stock market to fall further, and U.S. stocks fell, by the security of capital, a large number of international lobbying will certainly flock to the A-share market, coupled with the direction of the government of the A-share guide! Therefore, the A-share market is bound to rise steadily or accelerate. (2) Oil futures market: we believe that the oil futures market will fall further, and this year may even fall below the 50 U.S. dollar mark. (3) But all this must be built on the basis of political market stability, the political stability cornerstone is gradually becoming less secure. The Korean crisis, the Greek crisis, the Iranian crisis. If a political crisis ever flares up, the economic forecasts above will completely change trajectory.

I hope this addresses your question.