Will the supply chain change? China made "attack" Europe.

[car home? Industry] Since the beginning of this year, the European automobile industry can be described as ice and fire. How lonely the traditional fuel car companies are, how happy the new energy car companies are. Asian battery manufacturers "covet" the European electric vehicle market and have opened their factories to the doorstep of European car companies.

1 17 10/7, Honeycomb Energy announced that it would invest 2 billion euros (about RMB 156 billion) to build a battery factory in Saarland, Germany; The next day, Panasonic was also exposed to plans to enter Europe and set up the first battery factory in Norway. Prior to this, workers of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. were busy building the largest battery factory for electric vehicles in Europe near the German town of Arnstadt.

In the past, when traditional fuel vehicles became the mainstream, China manufacturing enterprises played a more "follower" role in the international market. With the arrival of electrification and intelligence, can China enterprises, once criticized as "big but not strong", rewrite the pattern in the new round of track?

■ The battery "fills" the European market

Why do Asian battery suppliers "hunt" the European electric vehicle market? Let's look at a set of intuitive data. Since May this year, the delivery of new energy vehicles in Europe has maintained a rapid growth trend (below).

From June 5438 to June 20201October, the sales of new energy vehicles in Germany, France, Norway, Britain, Sweden and Italy totaled 1 1.2 million vehicles, up by 2 1 1% year-on-year. Ping An Securities predicts that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe will reach 1 10,000-110,000 in 2020, an increase of 80%- 100% year-on-year.

It is not difficult to guess the reason for the fanaticism. Europe's carbon emission policy is becoming stricter, and European countries and regions are vigorously promoting new energy subsidy policies to stimulate the sales of new energy vehicles by reducing the cost of car purchase.

Compared with the fierce downstream demand, the supply capacity of European local power batteries is actually worrying. Audi, Mercedes-Benz and other car companies have repeatedly fallen into the situation of electric vehicle production suspension due to insufficient battery capacity. This is mainly due to the conservative attitude of several major German automobile manufacturers and parts companies. Some experts predict that it will take at least six to eight years for an automobile factory to build a battery factory and make a profit.

Therefore, some German automakers have chosen a new way to directly invest in China battery manufacturers to supplement their battery capacity. In May 2020, Volkswagen became the largest shareholder of Guo Xuan Hi-Tech. Then in July, Mercedes-Benz took a stake in China power battery manufacturer Funeng Technology, holding about 3% of the shares. ...

In addition to German car companies, German established suppliers such as Bosch and Continental Group have also sought cooperation between Chinese and enterprises, and made it clear that they will not invest independently in building battery factories.

According to Bosch's forecast, the self-developed battery needs at least an investment of nearly 20 billion euros (about 654.38+056 billion yuan), but it is impossible to determine when this investment will be rewarded. Dr. ElmarDegenhart, former CEO of Continental Group, explained: "German enterprises can only complete their own battery production after technically completing the leap from lithium electronic batteries to solid-state batteries, and this will not be realized until after 2025 at the earliest."

Under various backgrounds, China battery supplier Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has caught up with the "good times" and made a preemptive strike on the track of new energy vehicles. It is reported that only BMW has signed cooperation orders of 4 billion euros (about 31300 million yuan) to 7.3 billion euros (about 57 billion yuan) with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., and the contract delivery time is from 2020 to 20031year. Not only BMW, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has also cooperated with international brands such as Daimler, Hyundai, Jaguar Land Rover, Peugeot Citroen, Volkswagen and Volvo.

Battery products of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.

In the new energy battery industry chain, China enterprises such as Contemporary Amp Technology and Honeycomb Energy are constantly emerging to participate in global competition.

In July this year, Wei Hong Electric Power's new European headquarters and German lithium-ion battery system factory were completed, and it is planned to provide battery modules and battery packs to European customers in March 20021year.

After Mercedes-Benz shares in Funeng Technology, it plans to build a battery factory in Germany by the end of 2022, with an investment of more than 600 million euros. The initial production capacity is 6GWh/ year, and it will be increased to 65,438+00 gwh year by year, which can be used by 60,000-80,000 electric vehicles.

In addition, AESC, a China battery manufacturer with a power battery factory in Sunderland, UK, is planning to build another super battery factory nearby.

■ The supply chain pattern has quietly changed.

Although the battery accounts for 40% of the cost of the whole vehicle, the other two core components of new energy vehicles-motor and electronic control-have also become the new goals of major enterprises around the world.

1 65438+1October1day, Huayu Magna (a joint venture between Magna and Huayu Automobile) successfully mass-produced its high-voltage electric drive system assembly for the first time in Shanghai and shipped it to Europe; 165438+1On October 3, NEC plans to invest 200 billion yen (about RMB128 billion yuan) to build a new factory in Serbia, which will become the largest motor production center for electric vehicles in Europe.

Previously, the resources of these two suppliers have been focused on expanding the production of electric vehicle drive motors in China. Nowadays, the emerging new energy automobile market has "disrupted" the automobile supply chain in Europe, and the pattern is quietly changing.

Different from the battery field, this year's "three-in-one" electric drive system (motor, reducer, inverter integration) has not been profitable, and it has become a "blood sea" with fierce competition.

International parts companies represented by Bosch, Continental, ZF and NEC have entered the market strongly in recent years because of their excellent integration ability, and their products have been mass-produced. In the early years, China enterprises had oligopoly effect in the field of electric drive, and their market share was being divided by these foreign-funded enterprises. ...

Huayu Magna electric drive system

It is obviously more difficult for China electric drive enterprises to squeeze into the European supply chain than battery suppliers, and more depends on the joint venture background.

"In a real sense, only 5- 10 local electric drive manufacturers in China have the ability to do forward development and lay out a' three-in-one' electric drive system by virtue of their own advantages in motor and electronic control." Gong Jun, chairman of Shanghai Electric Drive Co., Ltd., once analyzed.

On the other hand, the OEMs represented by BYD and Weilai, whose core technologies were not controlled by people in the early years, have developed a variety of electric drive products comparable to Tesla.

XPT invested by Weilai, the output power of the first generation EDS electric drive system is as high as 240kW. At that time, the average level of electric drive system in domestic enterprises was only 150kW. After the domestic delivery reached 654.38+million vehicles, Weilai wanted to export its products to overseas markets.

"XPT Future Drive Technology Product Series"

Zeng Shuxiang, CEO of XPT, told car home: "At present, preparations for product development and industrialization are underway, and it is expected to be put into production in the European market in the fourth quarter of 20021year or the first quarter of 2022."

To what extent XPT can win the cake of European supply chain, it will take time to verify. After all, the most prominent problems, such as "acclimatization", redevelopment according to local conditions, and brand reputation, have determined that this road will not be smooth sailing.

■ Indirect income of China enterprises.

Compared with overseas measures such as building factories and exporting customized products, a number of domestic supply chain enterprises can "lie down and make money".

Why do you say that? China, a soil rich in Tesla, is bringing infinite opportunities to China's supply chain.

According to informed sources, Tesla Shanghai Factory plans to produce about 550,000 electric vehicles in 20021year, with about 65,438+10,000 models. 3 for export, model? Y also plans to export 654.38 million cars. Previously, Tesla Shanghai factory has announced the export of cars to Europe, about 7,000 domestic models? 10 10, shipped on October 27th, and sold to dozens of European countries.

"Tesla model? 3』

As a matter of fact, Tesla has a large space for price reduction, which has something to do with a large proportion of switching to China's supply chain. According to incomplete statistics, up to now, there are at least 150 China Tier? 1/ layer? 2 Joined Tesla's supply chain system, and its products cover Sandian, chassis, interior and exterior decoration, car body, automotive electronics and many other aspects.

For example, in March this year, Sheng Jun Electronics received an order of about 220 million yuan from Tesla China, mainly providing central control electronic products to the latter; In April this year, Huayu Automobile responded to an investor's question and said that the company had matched the relevant models of Tesla Shanghai, including interiors, seats, battery boxes and body parts. It is estimated that the matching value of bicycles is 8000- 10000 yuan.

"Tesla Shanghai Factory"

However, in addition to the Shanghai factory, Tesla's Berlin factory is also under construction at full speed, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the first quarter of 20021year. Perhaps due to the worsening epidemic situation in Europe, Tesla will tilt some of its production capacity to the China factory, but it does not rule out that the Shanghai factory will continue to undertake export tasks in the future. After all, adopting China supply chain can ensure the quality of Tesla and reduce many manufacturing costs.

In addition to Tesla, another car company that cannot be underestimated is Volkswagen. Volkswagen regards MEB platform as the core of its electrification strategic layout, and is expected to bear more than 75% of Volkswagen's electric vehicle production. By the end of 2022, Volkswagen will establish at least 65,438+08 electric vehicle production bases around the world, including 8 MEB factories (5 in Europe, 2 in China and 65,438+0 in the United States).

Powerful China enterprises or joint ventures, such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., Sheng Jun Electronics, Huayu Magna, etc., have not only become the exclusive suppliers of MEB platform in China, but also obtained MEB orders in Germany.

Facts have proved that China's supply chain is getting stronger and stronger, and more and more overseas enterprises regard China as the export hub of electric vehicles. Many automobile manufacturers, such as BMW, Renault and Daimler, have set up new energy vehicle production plants in China.

Foreign brands export electric cars made in China to the world, which proves to some extent that "Made in China" has been recognized in the international market. At the same time, China, as the world's largest electric vehicle market, gradually rivals the global mainstream market in terms of supply chain maturity.

■ Respond to the risk of "going out to sea"

The successful entry of some China spare parts enterprises into the European supply chain is closely related to their early strategic layout.

Since 20 1 1, Sheng Jun Electronics has successively acquired suppliers such as Puri, IMA and Quinn. So that it can quickly acquire the core technologies of overseas enterprises and achieve counter-attack.

In Europe, Sheng Jun Electronics has achieved a complete production capacity layout in automobile safety, intelligent cockpit electronics, power management of new energy vehicles and intelligent interiors. , providing 800V fast charging system for Taycan, Porsche's first pure electric vehicle, and BMS and other products for Mercedes-Benz MFA2 platform models. It is reported that in the first half of this year alone, Sheng Jun Electronics' revenue from new energy business increased by 74% year-on-year, reaching 580 million yuan.

"Porsche Taycan is equipped with 800V fast charging system"

To some extent, only by going abroad to practice internal skills can we form a powerful spare parts enterprise with international standards, thus helping China's automobile industry to grow from big to strong.

For those China enterprises with no "background", choosing to invest in Europe will face a series of risk problems. First and foremost, enterprises should examine the macro-political environment, local laws, economic conditions around factories, infrastructure construction, etc.

Because of lack of experience, general enterprises will look for authoritative third-party certification bodies when exporting or building factories, and they will also encounter many problems such as long certification cycle and strict certification system. A few days ago, weilai XPT successfully obtained the EDS electric drive system ISO? 26262 functional safety process certification, this application process took one year. This is only an endorsement of products exported to Europe. It may take several years for the follow-up products to be supplied in large quantities from fixed points, so it is necessary to reserve customers in advance.

Part of the enterprise's investment in Europe is to consider the security of the supply chain after the epidemic.

"In the past, China relied on low cost and was competitive in supplying the world. Things are different now. " Yong Yang, general manager of Huizhou Desai Siwei Automotive Electronics Key Account Management Center and Market and Public Relations, said, "At present, we are accelerating the establishment of overseas factories, including Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. As a China company, how to better embed into the global supply chain system is a problem that we have to think about now. "

■ Editor's summary:

The electrification and intelligence of automobiles is the general trend, which will change the supply chain form of the whole automobile industry. In the new round of track, China enterprises have emerged in the European new energy vehicle market. In the future, China's new energy strategy will also move from internal circulation to external circulation, and this trillion-dollar industry will be driven by dual circulation. (Text/car home? Peng Fei)