Is the advertising media industry good now?

--Original title: analysis of the current situation and development trend of China's media industry market in 2019 Six major development trends 5G commercialization will reshape the industry pattern

In 2018, the growth rate of China's media industry slowed down, and the market for periodicals and newspapers continued to shrink

August 23, 2019, organized by Tsinghua University's School of Journalism and On August 23, 2019, the "2019 Media Blue Book Launch and the 10th Media Development Forum", organized by Tsinghua University's School of Journalism and Communication, and co-sponsored by CTR, CSM, Social Science Literature Publishing House, and the Society of Media Economics and Management of the Chinese Society for the History of Journalism, was held at Tsinghua University.

At the forum, Liu Binjie, dean of the School of Journalism and Communication at Tsinghua University, gave a welcome speech, and Prof. Cui Baoguo of Tsinghua University released the Report on the Development of China's Media Industry (2019). Participating industry experts, research scholars delivered speeches and started dialogues on topics such as video industry change in the 5G era, next-generation Internet, and future media.

Report statistics show that the global entertainment and media industry market will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.2% in the next five years, and the development of the media industry will be slowed down due to the increase of uncertainties in the global political and economic situation. In contrast, China's stable political and economic dynamics have created a favorable development environment for the media industry, which is expected to grow at twice the global rate.The total size of China's media core industry reached 189.66 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. As of 2018, the total size of China's media industry amounted to 2095.95 billion yuan, exceeding the 2 trillion yuan mark. The growth rate of the media industry declined from 16.6% in 2017 to 10.5%, but still maintained double-digit growth, and the overall pattern of the media industry is undergoing in-depth structural adjustments and adjustments in policy regulations while remaining robust.

Total scale statistics and growth of China's media core industry, 2011-2018

Data source: compiled by the Prospective Industry Research Institute

(Remarks: the scale growth rate in 2014 was 16.4%)

In 2018, in the segmentation of the media core industry, the increase in revenue from the mobile data and Internet business amounted to 21.5% ; online advertising revenue growth amounted to 12.6%, compared with the growth rate of more than 25% in previous years significantly slowed down, the reason may lie in the overall economic growth rate slowdown for the advertising industry;

At the same time, the adjustment of the media content regulation policy is also an important influence factors, traditional media and online media regulation tends to be consistent. Online games also suffered a cold winter, by the capital market and version number audit suspension and other aspects of the impact of China's online game market scale in 2018 increased by 5.3% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate in recent years;

Broadcasting and television media, broadcasting and television advertising revenues increased by a small amount of 1.3%, in which the traditional television advertising operation suffered greater pressure, such as the traditional advertising major Hunan Satellite Television in 2019 The amount of investment in primetime resources only accounted for 1/4 of the amount of investment in the same period of 2018.

Revenue statistics of China's media core industry segments in 2018

Data source: compiled by the Prospect Industry Research Institute

Analysis of the development trend of China's media industry

On the overall development trend of the media industry, Professor of the School of Journalism and Communication at Tsinghua University Cui Baoguo said: 1, China's media industry development accounted for 1/7 of the world's media industry, and the volume of China's economic development is matched;

2, the development of China's media industry is slowing down steadily, not only with the macroeconomic adjustment, but also with the reform of the national media policy and the adjustment of the content regulation;

3, the development of the media industry has entered into the era of mass self-media communication, mass media, platform media, and self-media. media, platform media, self-media and other media forms co-exist and compete with each other;

4. The integration of traditional media and online media has made great progress, but the division between traditional media and online media is also becoming more and more obvious, and the positioning of the development of the media industry and the media business needs to be further explored and clarified;

5. In the context of the digital economy, cyber-space, 5G and artificial intelligence, the media industry will become more complex, and the media industry will become more and more complex, and the media industry will become more and more complex, and the media industry will become more and more complex, and the media industry will become more and more complex. , the media industry will become more complex and usher in a new wind period; both the industry and the academia need to study new topics, create new models, and explore new paradigms;

6. The future development trend of the media is affected by the U.S.-China relations and the changes in the world pattern, and has a great deal of uncertainty.

2019 TV advertising may usher in negative growth, 5G commercialization will reshape the pattern of China's media industry

2019 macroeconomic growth rate is expected to further slow down will inevitably be on the media? industry in general and advertising in particular? The further slowdown in macroeconomic growth in 2019 is bound to have an impact on the media industry in general, and advertising revenue growth in particular. However, the deep-rooted restructuring of the economy will also bring opportunities for the structural optimization of the media industry in the future. In particular, the government's policy support for the cultural and creative industries, artificial intelligence industry, and unique enterprises will bring opportunities for future structural optimization of the media industry. The government's policy support for cultural and creative industries, artificial intelligence industry, and unique enterprises will further stimulate the vitality of market players and accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure. According to the estimation of the group of "China Media Industry Development Report" (Media Blue Book), the scale of China's media industry is expected to reach 2,288.78 billion yuan in 2019, with a growth rate of 9.2%.

In which traditional TV will still face severe transformation pressure, 2019? TV advertising revenue is very likely to usher in negative growth, and there is a possibility of a sustained downward trend, repeating the mistakes of the newspaper industry. The newspaper industry in the new a? degree will continue to decline and further face the reality of closure and transformation. For the film industry, some theaters will see operational challenges, with 2018? The situation of hundreds of theaters closing down or shutting down for consolidation may continue.

Technological factors, 5G networks ushered in commercialization in 2019, which will once again reshape the pattern of China's media industry, under the influence of which the short video? industry is further favored, and it is expected that more? Under this influence, the short video industry is further favored, and more capital is expected to be invested in short video. It is expected that more capital will be invested in the competition of content production and commercial realization in the short video industry, and the comprehensive development of short- and long-term content on short video platforms will also become a trend. The virtual reality industry is likely to usher in a new wave of wind under the technological upgrading of 5G networks.

--For more data sources and analysis, please refer to China Media Industry Market Outlook and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report published by Foresight Industry Research Institute.