How to treat the local and central government dialectically?

The cockfighting law in game theory is based on the assumption that both participants are rational people and their strength is close, thus two Nash equilibria can be obtained, and it is impossible to infer which participant will enter and which one will retreat. But in reality, the game of eating chicken is often unbalanced and outnumbered, but the game of eating chicken will still happen, but the advance and retreat in the game process becomes predictable. Of course, the outcome of the game is not necessarily as predicted by the dominant strategy in the game, but may be much more complicated. In the history of our country, the game between the central government and the local separatist forces in the late Tang Dynasty belongs to this disguised game. Here, we might as well focus on the game form between the central government in the late Tang Dynasty and the buffer regions in Hebei Province, and appreciate the application changes of the game of fighting birds in specific historical events.

In the Tang Dynasty, the century was prosperous, with strong national strength and stable surroundings. However, this stability was achieved through a large number of ambushes on the border, which also caused a serious imbalance in the strength comparison between the mainland army and the border guards. Especially in Fanyang, Hebei Province, in order to prevent the Turks from going south, Emperor Xuanzong of the Tang Dynasty put most of the elite troops here under the command of An Lushan. Later, An Lushan frequently spied on Chang 'an's defensive forces, and found that the troops under his command were much less and weaker. Then, An Lushan played a game. If we attack Chang 'an from john young, we may be able to lay it in less than three months, and it will take at least four months for all localities to concentrate on attacking Chang 'an. By this time, he has achieved Chang 'an, and he will have a great chance to win again, which is completely analyzed from the strength. If the speed of his attack is beyond his expectation, Chang 'an will be surrounded immediately, and Li Longji will be caught after the attack, so he will win completely. And if he doesn't start fighting, when the imperial court discovers his threat to the imperial court, Emperor Xuanzong of the Tang Dynasty will definitely reduce his troops, even deprive him of his military power and strengthen Chang 'an's defense force. If he wants to rebel again, it is hard to predict who will die or live. Therefore, instead of waiting for Xuanzong to deprive him of his power, it is better to use Chang 'an to defend the emptiness and make a sudden attack to seize the world of the Tang Dynasty.

From the perspective of game theory, An Lushan had two choices at that time: no orno. On the contrary, we could fight against the seemingly powerful Tang Dynasty by ourselves, and the result was either to defeat the Tang Dynasty or to be destroyed by the Tang Dynasty. Judging from the strength comparison, we have a great chance to capture Chang 'an and then defeat Datang. This is a great temptation and an excellent opportunity. Once you miss it, you will never come again. If not, he may continue to be his john young, but the military power will certainly be gradually weakened, so that there is no military power behind him; Or be transferred to Chang 'an to be an idle official with no real power in Datang. What is that? Nothing can be done. Anti-income and non-anti-income in value. Opposing more than not opposing is An Lushan's dominant strategy. Therefore, in this context, the "Anshi Rebellion" broke out, and the small cockfighting chose to attack the big cockfighting. The reason why it dares to attack like this is because the big cockfight also has a fatal place, and the small cockfight just found this place, which greatly increased the odds of the small cockfight, and the small cockfight fought. Thus, the repeated game situation between the central government of the Tang Dynasty and the buffer region of Hebei Province was opened.

Judging from the above matrix, in An Lushan's view, if he rebelled, regardless of whether the central government of the Tang Dynasty suppressed it, he would be able to obtain realistic income value, but the result of not rebelling would not only be no realistic income value, but also the possibility of having nothing. It is based on this consideration that An Lushan raised the banner of attacking the Central Committee of the Tang Dynasty.

After the Anshi Rebellion, after eight years of bitter struggle, Datang finally defeated the rebels, killed the Anshi Rebellion and recovered Chang 'an, but it paid a heavy price, and its national strength was seriously depleted, so it no longer had the power to eradicate the Anshi remnants, so it had to take the Anshi remnants ministries on the spot. During the counter-insurgency, many new time messengers appeared in various places. The envoys of our times stationed troops in the counties and Guanjin pass under their jurisdiction, and privately appointed their own ministries to take charge. They often serve as the secretariat of the country, integrating military and political affairs, and also control the financial power of the jurisdiction, set up tens of thousands of troops, and set up pro-soldiers, and pro-soldiers often stage events to expel commanders and support others. This kind of incident is getting worse and worse in the buffer region, which has become a major source of social unrest. This is also the situation of the separatist regime in the late Tang Dynasty. The rule of the Tang Dynasty was greatly weakened by the vassal regime, and the rulers of the Tang Dynasty could not tolerate the continued development of this vassal force. Therefore, during the periods of Daizong, Dezong and Xianzong, they had a tortuous and arduous struggle for the separatist regions.

In Tang Daizong, in order to strengthen the centralization and weaken the vassal power, Li Yu, Tang Daizong, took advantage of the contradiction between the vassals and launched a series of separatist struggles. At this time, the Hebei buffer region set an example for other buffer regions and supported the army to fight against Tang Ting. So Tang Daizong had to destroy them first, so he adopted the principle of "vassal system" to carry out the war of surrender. However, because he adopted the political strategy of "learning from the ancients", he defeated a rebellious Sect, but gave birth to a new one, which was tantamount to "bringing up children into disaster" and his "controlling Sect by Sect" was also a miscalculation. As a result, more and more governors were cut, forming a vicious circle. Of course, this situation is also related to the strength of the Tang Dynasty at that time. Because there were not many troops directly controlled by the imperial court, they had to rely on the strength of each buffer region to contain the rebellious buffer region. If there is a mistake, it is better to say that the strength of the fighting chicken Tang is not as good as the overall strength of the rebel buffer region, and it is at a disadvantage in the strength comparison and has to make such a bad decision. Cockfighting is backed by strength.

When I arrived in Tang Dezong, at first, due to the chaotic situation of internal troubles and foreign invasion, Shili of Tang Dezong began to take a series of measures and make great efforts. Remove the "pear garden", dismiss the ladies-in-waiting, adopt the suggestion of Prime Minister Yang Yan, implement the "two tax laws" and stop all the old and new items; End the contribution of the Quartet. It is forbidden for eunuchs to accept bribes and demolish nobles and luxury houses built in Chongqing. These measures revived the social and political atmosphere after the An Shi Rebellion, and the whole country agreed with them. Therefore, Hebei Fanzhen was also impressed by Shi Li's political measures and did not dare to act rashly.

However, Shi Li has a fatal weakness, that is, he is stubborn and suspicious, impatient and easy to listen to rumors. First of all, because of listening to rumors, they killed Ada, the current finance minister, and Yang Yan, the talented prime minister, and the buffer regions began to defy the court again. At this point, Tang Dezong easily launched the war of cutting the vassal, and the change of Jingyuan and the rebellion of Zhu Zhi broke out. Although Fan Town in Hebei did not conform to the jurisdiction of the central government in Tang Dynasty, it did not correspond to Zhu Wu. This is actually waiting to see if Tang has the ability to quell the rebellion. If it is pacified, it will appear to be subject to jurisdiction; If not, we will take the opportunity to rebel and seize more territory. At this time, Tang also didn't want to provoke the contradiction with the buffer region of Hebei, thus strengthening the strength of the rebel army and increasing the difficulty of rebellion. So, both cockfighting took a step back.

Therefore, the contradiction between the Tang Dynasty and Hebei Province is in a secondary position. In this context, Li Baozhen, an envoy of the Tang Dynasty, used the contradiction between Wang and Wang to persuade Wang to surrender to the court. At this time, when he was in the most difficult time of Fengtian's siege, he immediately accepted Li Baozhen's suggestion and sent someone to explain to Tian Yue, Wang He and Li Na, and promised to forgive their sins. Give them rich official titles and make them surrender to the court. Seeing that the status of the separatist regime can be recognized, the three secretly expressed their sincerity to the court.

In the spring of the first year of Xingyuan (784), Dezong blamed himself and announced Amnesty. The imperial edict said, "Li Xilie, Tian Yue, Wang and Li Na were honored by the past, and followed the princes to control the lovely party and make it suspicious. They all got lost from above and suffered from below. Everything is washed together, and its name reappears as before. " In addition to Zhu, there is also "Congyuan". Although this imperial edict could not fundamentally change the situation of the separatist regime in the buffer region, it still played a certain role in easing the contradiction with the buffer region in Hebei, concentrating and eliminating Zhu. After seeing the pardon order, Wang, Tian Yue and Li Na all came forward to apologize in the name of Wang. Wang was appointed as ambassador, Li Na as ambassador to Pinglu and Tian Yue as ambassador to Weibo. At this time, I will check the official number of the school's left servant. Like Zhu, he sent troops south and clashed with Tian Yue. He attacked, but was defeated by Li Baozhen and Wang and returned to Youzhou.

In the first year of Zhenyuan (785), Zhu Tao died of illness, and the soldiers made Liu Peng the commander-in-chief, so the court appointed Liu Peng as our ambassador to Youzhou and Pinglu. In the second year of Zhenyuan (786), Li Xilie was killed by Chen. Chen surrendered to the court, and the court appointed him as the envoy in Huaixi. Later, Wu Shaocheng killed Chen and took him as his own (the Tang Dynasty was the official position of the buffer region, and in our time and in the absence of observation, others acted as agents), and the court appointed him to stay in Huaixi. Dezong's war against the buffer zone ended in a compromise policy that recognized the vested interests of the buffer zone. In this game, although Tang is just a forward cockfighting, Hebei Province has made backward cockfighting, but Hebei Province has retained its vested interests and even increased its actual income. Obviously, compromise is their dominant strategy; And Tang also won the official victory of the vassal regime, thus winning face. Progress is also its dominant strategy, but its progress is based on compromise. At this point, the game matrix becomes:

Cockfighting is backed by strength, and in the process of the game, all parties follow strict advantage strategies. The so-called tolerance, compromise and * * * survival are all temporary measures taken under the strict dominant strategy. Once you are strong enough to beat your opponent, fighting between cockfights is inevitable.

When Tang Xianzong was in China, the strength of the Tang Dynasty gradually increased, and "the rule of harmony" appeared. Therefore, in dealing with the problem of Hebei Province, he took an active offensive stance and started a large-scale separatist war. After the pacification of Xichuan, Zhenhai and Huaixi, two of the three towns in Hebei Province were directly under the central government of the Tang Dynasty, and only Liu Zong of Lulong acted in collusion with the rebel buffer region. However, after pacifying all the rebel provinces, he obediently joined the central government of the Tang Dynasty, so that the central government of the Tang Dynasty was completely unified in form.

In a word, the game between the central government and the other party in the late Tang Dynasty was a repeated process of chicken game, and almost all of them were played by strictly dominant strategy who followed the cockfighting rule. When the central government is strong, local forces will obey the central government and adopt the superior strategy of retreating; When the central government is weak, local governments will rebel, refuse to accept the jurisdiction of the central government, and adopt an offensive advantage strategy to obtain more realistic income value from the central government. Therefore, in this game, the strength of the central government has become the key to advance and retreat in the cockfighting.