Traditional Culture Encyclopedia - Traditional virtues - A summary of the influence of international service trade liberalization on developing countries and its countermeasures
A summary of the influence of international service trade liberalization on developing countries and its countermeasures
I. General situation of China's service trade development
Since the reform and opening up, China's service trade has developed rapidly, and some emerging service industries have basically formed a relatively complete service industry system. During the 30 years from 1978 to 2007, the average growth rate of service industry exceeded 10%, which was higher than the average growth rate of GDP in the same period. Looking at the development of China's service trade in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, we can see that China's service trade shows the characteristics of total growth and structural imbalance.
1. From the perspective of total trade, the growth is rapid and the deficit is widening.
With the gradual opening of China's service industry, service trade has developed rapidly. The import and export of service trade in China increased from $20.24 and $25/kloc-0.20 billion in 2007 to $/kloc-0.20 billion and/kloc-0.70 billion in 2007, with average annual growth rates of 2 1.2%% and/kloc-0.7% respectively. 1989 China ranks 27th in service export and 32nd in import. By 2000, the export of services reached $3 billion/kloc-0 billion, the import reached $35.9 billion, and the total trade in services reached $66 billion, ranking 12 in the world. In 2003, the total import and export volume of China's service trade exceeded the $ 654.38+000 billion mark for the first time, with a growth rate of 654.38+08%, becoming the ninth largest service trading country in the world and the top 654.38+00 in the world for the first time. In 2005, the scale of China's service trade continued to expand, and the total scale of service trade revenue and expenditure reached US$ 654.38+058.2 billion, an increase of 654.38+08%, accounting for 7% of China's GDP in the same period and a slight increase of 4% compared with 2004. In 2007, the import and export of China's service trade both exceeded the $654.38+0 billion mark, and the total service trade reached $256 billion, with an increase rate of over 20%. Among them, the import value of service trade was $654.38+029 billion, accounting for 4.2% of the world's service trade, ranking fifth in the world; The export value of service trade is US$ 654.38+02.7 billion, accounting for 3.9% of the world's service trade, ranking seventh in the world.
Figure 1 1982 ~ 2007 China service trade import and export situation.
Note: the growth rate in the figure refers to the ratio of the total import and export of services to the previous year, without deducting the influence of price level.
Source: According to the "China Service Trade Development Report 2007" provided by the Ministry of Commerce, "service trade import and export breakdown data".
In addition, as can be seen from Figure 1, during the period of 1982 ~ 199 1, service exports were generally greater than service imports, and service trade was in a surplus state. However, from 1992 to 2007, from the perspective of the growth rate of total service trade, During the period of 198, the year-on-year growth rate of the total service trade was mostly between10% and 30% compared with the previous year (except for a few years, which may have negative growth or abnormally high growth due to external environment, such as 1983, 1992 and 18). In 2 1 century, with the strong impetus of China's entry into WTO, the service trade increased rapidly again. During this period, the average annual growth rate of exports reached 22%, and that of imports reached 2 1%.
2. From the perspective of trade structure, the imbalance is prominent and gradually improved.
According to the intensive factors of producer services, services can be divided into two categories: one is natural resources or labor-intensive traditional services, mainly including transportation and tourism; Second, knowledge, technology or capital-intensive emerging service industries, mainly including communication, insurance, financial computer and information services, patent licensing and technology transfer, movies and other audio-visual products, accounting, law, consulting and advertising.
As can be seen from Figure 2 and Figure 3, (1) the traditional service trade, which is dominated by transportation and tourism, accounts for more than 60% in the selected year, while the emerging service trade, which is dominated by finance, insurance, consulting, exclusive rights use fees and franchise fees, accounts for a relatively small proportion; (2) From the aspect of export, the proportion of transportation service exports to the total export of service trade decreased obviously, reaching the lowest level at 1999, and then gradually increasing; The proportion of tourism service exports remained basically unchanged from 1982 to 1990, but it increased obviously from 199 1 and began to decline again in 2003 (affected by SARS). The proportion of other business services exports basically showed a steady growth trend; (3) From the aspect of import, the proportion of import of transportation services in the total import of service trade decreased obviously, from 66.86% in 1982 to 30.94% in 2007; The import of tourism services increased gradually, from 3.54% in 1982 to 23.96% in 2007; The proportion of imports of other business services has basically increased steadily. Therefore, although China's service trade structure is still mainly labor-intensive and resource-intensive, China's service trade export structure and import structure are gradually changing from traditional labor-intensive or resource-intensive to emerging knowledge (technology)-intensive.
Figure 2 Changes in the export structure of China's service trade in 2007
Figure 3 Changes in the import structure of China's service trade in 2007
Source: China Statistical Yearbook, China Balance of Payments of State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and World Trade Organization Statistical Yearbook.
Through comparison, we can find that the internal structure of service trade has gradually improved with the continuous opening of China's service market since the 2 1 century. On the one hand, the proportion of exports and imports of traditional service sectors, such as natural resources or labor-intensive tourism services, has gradually decreased, while the proportion of exports and imports of transportation services has increased, but it has dropped sharply compared with the 1980s. On the other hand, emerging service industries, such as computer and information services and consulting services, which are mainly knowledge (technology)-intensive, are developing rapidly, and the proportion of imports and exports is increasing day by day. At the same time, however, it must be noted that the import proportion of some important service sectors, such as insurance services, royalties and user fees, consulting and other sectors, has increased significantly, reflecting the low domestic supply level of these services.
Second, literature review
Looking back at foreign literature in recent years, the research literature on service trade and economic growth is mainly from the perspective of service trade liberalization, and the impact of service trade liberalization on a country's economy is mainly concentrated in two key industries: overall service trade, finance and telecommunications. Specifically, it includes the following four aspects:
1. Using the theoretical model of trade liberalization effect, analyze the impact of overall service trade liberalization on economic growth.
Dee and Hanslow(2000) show that if the trade barriers of service trade and commodity trade after Uruguay Round are completely removed, the whole world economy will gain 260 billion dollars from it, of which 654.38+03 billion dollars will come from service trade, which is roughly equivalent to the gains from commodity trade. Sherman Robinson (2002) selected the cross-sectional data of 10 countries and regions and 1 1 departments as the research objects. The research structure shows that service trade not only directly affects the production and trade of world service products, but also has an important impact on other sectors of the economy through the input-output relationship between industries. For developing countries, when they import service products from developed countries, they can get information and advanced technology, which will lead to the improvement of total factor productivity and promote economic growth. Rutherford, Tal and Shepotillo (2005) used CGE model to evaluate and analyze the impact of Russia's entry into WTO. They come to the same conclusion, that is, the opening of the service market can increase a country's welfare, and eliminating the market access barriers of service FDI is the main source of the welfare increase of a country's service trade liberalization.
2. Based on the specific service trade sector, discuss the influence of the opening of the specific service trade sector on a country's economic growth.
Since the service trade negotiations are mainly concentrated in the financial and telecommunications sectors, the literature on the relationship between specific service sectors and economic growth is mainly concentrated in these two sectors. Goldsmith (1969) believes that financial services can increase a country's output and income by investing financial capital in the most productive sectors. He used the ratio of financial assets to GNP as an indicator to measure the performance of the financial sector and used it as an explanatory variable to explain economic growth. King and Levine( 1993) pointed out that financial services can promote industry growth by increasing capital accumulation and/or technological innovation. Under the premise of controlling other factors that affect long-term growth, the financial system debt /GDP ratio and financial system loan /GDP ratio are used to explain the growth of the financial industry itself, and significant positive regression results are obtained. Francois and Schuknecht(2000) use trade openness, major macroeconomic variables and financial sector concentration to explain the real per capita GDP growth rate. They found that there is a positive correlation between the opening of financial industry and trade and economic growth. Khoury and Savvides(2006) selected the cross-sectional data of telecommunication and financial services sectors in 60 countries, including developing countries and developed countries, and established a threshold regression model. The results show that the impact of service market opening on economic growth in low-income countries and high-income countries is significantly different, and the impact of specific service sector opening on economic growth is related to the country's economic development level.
3. From the perspective of service as an intermediate input, this paper studies the influence of producer service trade on a country's economic growth.
Markussen (1989) found that both capital-intensive intermediate inputs and knowledge-intensive producer services can bring increasing returns. Although foreign direct investment in service industry will have a local "crowding-out effect" on domestic service enterprises after the service market is opened, the competition in this service field will lead to greater domestic demand for this service, so the substitution effect of services provided by foreign capital on domestic corresponding services is less than the scale effect caused by competition; At the same time, due to the characteristics of service differentiation, the services provided by foreign investors have become a useful supplement to the domestic provision of intermediate inputs. Therefore, he believes that the liberalization of producer services may have a significant positive impact on a country's social welfare. Francois, Joseph and Kenneth Reinert (1996) used the data of 17 countries to analyze the role of service industry in the production and trade structure; These studies generally believe that the import of producer service trade has a positive impact on a country's economic growth, mainly because producer service promotes economic development by improving the productivity of the whole economic sector, and producer service trade is complementary to other service trade and commodity trade, but not a substitute. Hoekman(2006) thinks that in some countries, such as India, the service industry may become the engine of economic growth. According to his analysis, under the condition of open service market, service will become the key factor of domestic enterprises' competitiveness, and the competitiveness of enterprises depends to a great extent on whether they can obtain low-cost and high-quality productive services, such as finance, telecommunications, transportation and distribution services. Therefore, the import of producer services will promote the rapid development of domestic related services, thus improving the country's economic performance.
4. Based on specific service trade models, this paper studies the influence of service trade liberalization on a country's economic growth under different models.
Wally and Bob Hamilton (1984) studied the impact on the global economy after removing all restrictions on labor mobility between countries. Due to the opening of the movement of natural persons, the labor resources based on the marginal products of labor in different countries have been newly allocated on a global scale. Therefore, they estimate that under certain conditions, due to the free flow of labor, global income may double, and it will have a significant impact on the income distribution of countries. Walmsley and Winters(2005) pointed out that if developed countries allow foreign service providers equivalent to 3% of their domestic labor force to enter their domestic market, the global benefits may far exceed the benefits brought by any existing trade form liberalization, and both developed and developing countries can enjoy this increase in benefits. In addition, they also pointed out that the free flow of skilled workers has been widely discussed and solved at present, however, the free flow of unskilled workers will also produce more benefits.
Reviewing domestic scholars' research on service trade and economic growth, mainly from qualitative and quantitative aspects. In qualitative analysis, some scholars have analyzed in detail the various impacts of service trade on a country's economy, mainly including Wang Jian (1999), Xiong Chunlan (2000), (2003), Cheng Dazhong (2004) and Miao (2005). In quantitative analysis, Wei Xufang and Zheng Zhiguo (2004) used the least square method to make an empirical analysis of China's service trade and economic growth. The results show that there is a positive correlation between China's import and export volume and GDP, and service import plays a greater role in promoting economic growth than export. Sun (2005) empirically studied the quantitative relationship between service trade and Macao's economic growth. The results show that every net export of Macao's service trade increases by $65,438+0, the GDP will increase by $2.25; Hu Ridong and Su Qifang (2005) used the annual data of China from 65438 to 0985 to 2004 for regression analysis, and found that in the long run, service trade exports can promote economic growth, while service trade imports can inhibit economic growth, but the net effect of the two is positive; In the short term, the import and export of services have little impact on economic growth; Pan Aimin (2006) used error correction model to study: there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between service trade export, import and economic growth; In the short term, the relationship between the three changes rapidly from short-term deviation to long-term balanced adjustment, and the short-term fluctuation of service trade imports has obvious short-term changes to economic growth.
Based on the above research literature, it can be found that most of the empirical literature at home and abroad focuses on the analysis of the impact of total service trade on economic growth, while the research on the relationship between service trade structure and economic growth is still blank. Therefore, this paper uses the data of import and export and GDP of service trade in different industries in China from 65438 to 0982 to 2007 to construct trade structure indicators, and investigates the dynamic impact response between service trade structure and economic growth based on impulse response function analysis to reveal the long-term dynamic interaction between them.
Third, data and methods.
(a) Data sources and variable definitions
1. data source
The author selects the annual data of 1982-2007 as the sample data, which are all from the Statistical Yearbook of China, the Balance of Payments of China of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the Statistical Yearbook of the World Trade Organization. The World Trade Organization divides service trade into three sectors, namely, transportation, tourism and other commercial services. Other business services include eight items, specifically, communication, construction, insurance, financial computer and information services, patent licensing and technology transfer, culture, sports and entertainment (including movies and other audio-visual products) and other business services (including accounting, law, consulting and advertising).
2. Definition of variables
According to the intensive factors of producer services, services can be divided into two categories: one is natural resources or labor-intensive traditional services, mainly including transportation and tourism; Second, knowledge, technology or capital-intensive emerging service industries, mainly including communication, construction, insurance, financial computer and information services, patent licensing and technology transfer, audio-visual products such as movies, accounting, law, consulting and advertising. Therefore, when investigating the service trade structure, we construct the traditional service export share and the traditional service import share to measure. The export share of traditional services (EXSH) indicates the proportion of traditional service exports to total exports, that is, transport exports, tourism exports and total exports in that year respectively; IMSH (traditional service import share) indicates the proportion of traditional service imports to total imports, that is, transportation imports, tourism imports and total imports in that year respectively. Considering that other business services in other business services may contain some traditional services, but the specific data of various emerging services cannot be obtained, the author uses and indicators to roughly reflect the structure of China's service trade, and uses GDP over the years to represent economic growth.
In order to eliminate the influence of exchange rate and price factors, GDP data are converted into dollars, and the consumer price index is subtracted from GDP data in each year. Since the CPI index of China was compiled only from 1985, the data from 1982 to 1984 were converted by urban consumer price index, and RGDP was obtained after conversion. In order to avoid heteroscedasticity of time series economic data, the natural logarithm of RGDP is used as LRGDP. This transformation will not change the characteristics of time series.
Figure 3 Trends of service trade structure indicators EXSH and IMSH
As can be seen from Figure 3, during the period of 1982-2007, the export and import of traditional service trade both accounted for more than 50%, indicating that traditional service trade is still the main part of China's service trade and plays an important role in its development. The export of traditional service trade developed rapidly in 1980s, accounting for more than 70% every year, and then gradually declined, reaching the lowest level in 2003, accounting for only 54.58%. During the period of 1982- 1993, the import proportion of traditional service trade exceeded 70% except in some years (1984), and reached 90% in some years, such as 1986 and 1990. With China's accession to the WTO, the service trade market has been further opened.
(B) Unit root test and cointegration analysis
In the analysis of time series, it is traditionally required that the data is stationary, that is, there is no random trend or deterministic trend. If non-stationary time series variables are used for regression, "pseudo-regression" will occur. However, the time series in the real economy is often non-stationary. In order to make regression meaningful, we make a difference and then return to a stable time series, but the disadvantage of this is that we will lose useful information in the original series, which is necessary for problem analysis. The cointegration method proposed by Enger and Granger solves this problem well, and the cointegration analysis needs unit root test. There are many methods of unit root test, such as DF method, ADF method, PP method and so on. This paper adopts ADF method.
We do ADF test for each variable, and after many attempts, we choose the best lag period and test form, and get the unit root results as shown in Table 2. As can be seen from Table 2, at the significance level of 1%, the horizontal items of all variable sequences are non-stationary sequences; After the first-order difference, they are all stable at the significance level of 0.0 1, so they are all first-order simple integers I( 1), and we can do co-integration test on this basis.
Because VAR model is sensitive to the choice of lag period, AIC or SC minimum principle is adopted to determine the best lag period. Determine the lag in the number of lag periods, then verify whether there are constant items and time trend items in co-integration, and then carry out co-integration test on the data. The results are shown in Table 3. As can be seen from Table 3, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and two cointegration equations and variables. The ADF test of the residual of the cointegration equation shows that the residual is a stationary sequence, which also proves that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and the share of traditional service exports and traditional service imports.
Table 2 Test results of stationarity of each variable
The conclusion of variable type Dw value (ctk) ADF 1% critical value
Lrgdp (c, t, 4) 2.072 0.853-4.4438+0 is unstable.
EXSH (C, t, 4) 2.006 -3.325 -4.374 is unstable.
Imsh (c, t, 3) 2. 109-2.926-4.374 is unstable.
Dlrgdp (c, t, 0) 2.2 15-5.398-4.394 is stable.
Dexsh (c, n, 0) 1.920-7.059-3.738 is stationary.
Dimsh (c, n, 0) 1.776-6.443-3.738 is stationary.
Note: C, T, K T and K in the test type respectively represent the constant term, time trend term and lag order in the unit root test; N stands for excluding c or t, and d stands for first-order difference.
Table 3 Co-integration Test Results
H0 tracking statistics 1% critical value correlation probability
r = 0 60. 13 17 35.4582 0.0000
r≤ 1 26.87 1 1 19.937 1 0.0007
r≤2 6. 1900 6.6349 0.0 128
4.VAR model and impulse function response path.
(a) Model setting and estimation
Because the relationship between trade structure and economic growth is interactive, the upgrading of trade structure will stimulate economic growth, and economic growth is always accompanied by the upgrading of trade structure. Therefore, using VAR model to analyze the relationship between service trade structure and economic growth is more conducive to analyzing the long-term dynamic influence between variables and avoiding the problem of variable default. The general form of vector autoregressive model VAR(p) is as follows:
t= 1,2,…,T ( 1)
Where: is the K-dimensional endogenous variable vector, is the D-dimensional exogenous variable vector, P is the lag order, and T is the number of samples. Dimension matrix and dimension matrix b are coefficient matrices to be estimated. It is a k-dimensional random disturbance vector, which can be correlated with each other in the same period, but it cannot be correlated with its own lag value and the variables on the right side of the inequality.
On the basis of the formula (1), we establish the VAR autoregressive model of time series LRGDP, EXSH and IMSH. The key to accurately establish VAR model is to determine the number of lag periods. In practical application, on the one hand, it is hoped that the lag period P is large enough to reflect the dynamic characteristics of the building model more completely; On the other hand, the longer the lag period, the more parameters need to be estimated in the model, and the more degrees of freedom are lost. Therefore, in order to find a balance between the lag period and the degree of freedom, the lag order of the model is generally determined according to the minimum value of AIC and SC information. According to many practical calculations, the lag order is finally determined to be 4, and the model is set to VAR(4). The estimation formula obtained by OLS is as follows, and the overall fitting degree of the model is good.
The stability test and residual autocorrelation test of the model show that the model is stable and the overall fitting is high, and each disturbance term is independent of its own lag value. The model has a good fitting effect and can be used as the basis for further analysis.
(2) impulse response analysis
Impulse response function is used to analyze the dynamic impact of the change of error term or the impact of model, and to measure the impact of standard deviation impact of random disturbance term on the current and future values of endogenous variables. According to the obtained VAR model, based on the impulse response function analysis method, the dynamic response path of the interaction between traditional service trade import share, export share and economic growth can be obtained.
1. As can be seen from Figure 5, the disturbance of economic growth on the standard deviation of traditional service trade export share has always been a positive effect. Although it did not appear in the period of 1, it has been positive ever since. After the period of 1-5 fluctuated slightly, the fifth period began to rise gradually, and the eighth period began to grow steadily. This shows that the export share of traditional service trade is impacted by external conditions, which has the same impact on economic growth, and this impact has a significant promotion and lasting impact.
2. As can be seen from Figure 6, the disturbance of economic growth on the standard deviation of the import share of traditional service trade has been negatively affected. The current reaction of LRGDP is zero, then it gradually decreases, and after a slight increase in the 3rd-4th period, it always decreases to the end of the period. Its economic meaning is that a certain impact on the import share of traditional service trade will bring a sustained reverse impact on the economy, and in the long run, it will have a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth.
3. As can be seen from Figure 7, the impact of traditional service trade export share on a standard deviation of economic growth shows a high negative effect in the current period, rising to a positive value in the second period, gradually declining from the fourth period, rising in the sixth and seventh periods, and then falling to the end of the period. By calculating the cumulative reaction value of EXSH in the analysis period, it can be found that the cumulative reaction of a standard deviation shock of LRGDP to EXSH in the current period is -0.063, indicating that economic growth has a weak negative effect on the export share of traditional service trade for a long time.
4. As can be seen from Figure 8, after the impact of a standard deviation on economic growth in the current period, the import share of traditional service trade increased during the period of 1-2, and reached the highest point in the second period (that is, the response of IMSH to LRGDP in the second period was 0.0 1 14), and then gradually decreased to a negative value, which lasted until the fifth and sixth periods. The economic implication of this result is that economic growth can increase the import share of traditional service trade in the initial stage, but in the long run, economic growth has a significant inhibitory effect on the import share of traditional service trade.
Figure 5 LRGDP response to EXSH shock Figure 6 LRGDP response to IMSH shock
Fig. 7 response of exsh to LRGDP shock fig. 8 response of imsh to LRGDP shock
Verb (abbreviation of verb) conclusion and suggestion
Different from the existing research that focuses on the analysis of total service trade and economic growth, this paper makes a co-integration analysis of the export structure, import structure and economic growth of China's service trade from 65438 to 0982 to 2007 based on the impulse response function analysis method of VAR model, and on this basis, investigates the mutual dynamic influence process of the three. The simulation results of impulse response function show that:
1. The export of traditional service trade has a significant promotion and lasting impact on China's economic growth, while the import of traditional service trade has a significant inhibition. This shows that: on the one hand, with the deepening of liberalization of service trade in China, traditional service industries (tourism, transportation, etc. ) has a comparative advantage, especially the export of traditional service trade, which greatly promotes the economic growth of China, so we should continue to play this advantage in the future and form a competitive advantage; On the other hand, the import of traditional service trade inhibits economic growth, reflecting that the import of emerging service trade has a stimulating effect on economic growth. Emerging service industries mainly produce knowledge-intensive, technology-intensive or capital-intensive services, which are characterized by high added value and high income. Vigorously developing emerging service industries is conducive to the sustainable development of China's service trade. Therefore, from a dynamic point of view, we should expand the import of service trade, especially emerging service trade, and upgrade the structure of service trade.
2. In the short term, economic growth has a weak positive effect on the export and import of traditional service trade, which shows that economic growth will accelerate the export and import of traditional service trade in the short term. However, with the rapid development of emerging service sectors, the structure of service trade will show a new situation in which the proportion of emerging service trade increases and the proportion of traditional service trade decreases. In addition, in the long run, economic growth has an inhibitory effect on the export and import of traditional service trade, which further shows that economic growth will inevitably bring about the upgrading of industrial structure. With the continuous development of economy, people's demand for emerging services is gradually rising. We should increase the import of emerging services, promote the development of China's domestic service industry and service trade by introducing advanced technologies and business concepts, and finally realize "going out" through "bringing in".
Therefore, with the deepening of the service industry's opening to the outside world after China's entry into WTO, the development of China's service trade should follow the policy of "gradual progress, key breakthroughs and deepening one by one". First of all, based on traditional comparative advantages, continue to consolidate and develop traditional service trade fields such as transportation services and tourism services, which are mainly labor-intensive and natural resource-intensive, cultivate competitive advantages and form long-term dynamic comparative advantages; Secondly, actively develop producer services and optimize the structure of service trade. On the one hand, using modern information technology and management means, we will speed up the transformation of traditional producer services and vigorously develop modern logistics integrating transportation, transportation, warehousing and postal services; On the other hand, focus on the development of knowledge-intensive producer services, including financial services, telecommunications, scientific and technological services, advertising design, management consulting and other professional and business services, and increase the proportion of these industries in the whole service industry, thus providing a strong industrial base for China to adjust and optimize the service trade structure; Third, improve the level of opening up to the outside world and intensify efforts to guide foreign investment into modern service industries. At present, foreign capital is mainly distributed in manufacturing industry, and less foreign capital flows into service industry. The government should formulate appropriate policies to guide foreign investment into the knowledge-intensive modern service industry. By introducing foreign advanced technology and management experience, domestic related service enterprises are encouraged to learn by doing and innovate constantly, thus promoting the development of domestic service industry; Fourth, encourage superior enterprises to implement the strategy of "going out" and establish service brands. Service enterprises should improve the management level of service production, strengthen modern logistics and supply chain management, formulate a scientific management system according to the service characteristics of the industry, improve the planning, organization and control capabilities of service production, and cultivate China service brands through the joint efforts of the government and enterprises. For some service enterprises with advantages, we should encourage the implementation of the "going out" strategy, give full play to their comparative advantages, and strive to become world-renowned service enterprises.
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