The risk of car companies is accelerating the transfer to supply chain companies.

An epidemic in COVID-19 exposed many problems of car companies, such as production management, cash flow management, supply chain management and so on. The pressure of car production and sales doubled the risks faced by car companies. It is worth noting that these risks are now accelerating the transfer to supply chain enterprises.

The operational risks of car companies have intensified.

Under the double impact of the continuous downturn in the auto market and the epidemic situation, the overall risk of car companies is high. First of all, the overall decline in automobile production and sales, automobile production and sales growth is weak. According to the data of Passenger Car Federation, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars in June-May this year was only 5.963 million, down 27.8% year-on-year. Although the growth trend has recovered in the past two months, considering the overall environment this year, the annual production and sales will decline to a certain extent. Secondly, due to the large-scale suspension of production during the epidemic, the demand for automobile consumption weakened and the financial burden of automobile enterprises increased. In addition, the relative reduction of automobile production and sales scale means that the same number of automobile enterprises have to share a more limited market, and the competitive pressure of automobile enterprises has further increased.

The overall risk has intensified, but the risk has not been evenly distributed to each enterprise. In other words, different enterprises face different risks.

The person in charge of a foreign-funded spare parts enterprise said in an interview with Geshi Automobile that the risks faced by the new forces of making cars may be even greater. "Many new forces in China are actually doing concept stocks. They don't have their own production line, no production line optimization, no core technology, and no comprehensive quality control. This is a great risk. "

At the same time, he also pointed out that the situation of independent car companies lacking technological innovation is not good. "Compared with the new forces of building cars, most of the independent car companies are strong. They have experience, facilities and factories, but what they lack is technology. They have not mastered the technology of real electric vehicles, and there are not many technological innovations in thermal management systems and intelligent valve systems. "

A person in charge of an independent car company said that it is unlikely that independent car companies will fall, but some sub-brands or models of these car companies may die in large numbers. As for which brands can survive, it mainly depends on its cost profit rate. Brands with better cost and profit margins will be left behind, even if the models are very low-end.

"It is also very dangerous for two local brands to cooperate in joint ventures and create a new brand. On the one hand, problems such as leadership may be encountered in the process of cooperation, which will drag down the process of technological development to some extent. On the other hand, there are many mature brands in the automobile industry, and the market may not be able to accept such new brands. " An industry veteran added.

In view of the risks of car companies, senior analysts of Gaspar Automotive Research Institute said that judging the risks of enterprises should focus on the fundamentals of enterprises and the gap with their own expectations. "At present, the big environment has caused the industry and car companies to face great pressure for survival. Among them, the new forces and some weak independent brands have broken the capital chain. In addition, the weak market also makes the industry more concentrated, and marginalized brands are being eliminated by the market at an accelerated pace. Some traditional super-large enterprises are also facing the negative impact of a sharp decline in sales and no obvious signs of improvement. Perhaps these enterprises still have enough ability to cope with the crisis, but whether external expectations and downward trends can be quickly contained will become the pressure that enterprises have to bear. "

The transfer of risks to supply chain enterprises has accelerated.

A recent survey of nearly 65,438+0,200 people by Gaspar shows, "Does high-risk car companies have a negative impact on your company?" When asked about this question, 85% of the participants said that high-risk car companies had brought negative effects to their companies, among which 37% revealed that "it had a great negative impact" and 47% said that "it had a negative impact, but the impact was not great".

It can be seen that the risks borne by vehicle enterprises are quietly transferred to supply chain enterprises. A local auto parts company said in an interview with Geshi Automobile that the Toyota production model adopted by auto companies has largely transferred risks to suppliers, and the risks of auto companies have increased, so the risks of supply chain enterprises may increase geometrically.

Specifically, the negative impact of car companies on supply chain enterprises is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First of all, car companies push down prices, and the financial pressure on supply chain companies increases. Compared with suppliers, OEMs have more say in price negotiations, which is why most car companies require suppliers to "decline year by year". Now the financial pressure of car companies is increasing, and the price reduction may be more common. Recently, many parts suppliers reported to Gaspar that after the outbreak, car companies asked the company to further reduce prices, and the company's financial pressure was increasing.

Secondly, the situation of defaulting on payment for goods also appears frequently, which makes the situation of supply chain enterprises more difficult. An automotive electronics supplier pointed out: "At present, it is generally not seen that OEMs take actions and measures to help supply chain enterprises. On the contrary, there are quite a few cases where payment is delayed and an order forecast cannot be given. " Another automobile equipment manufacturer also revealed that the actual output of the main engine factory will be lower than the forecast this year, which directly affects the sales of suppliers, and suppliers also face other difficulties, such as accounts receivable and raw material supply chain difficulties. An industry insider even admitted that the payment period of car companies to suppliers has been continuously extended. "The average payment cycle is delayed from one quarter to half a year, and some even delay from half a year to more than 10 months. Moreover, the payment received after 10 months is not money, but a bank acceptance bill, and suppliers have to wait for some time to exchange money."

In addition, the order is unstable, and the related product/technology cooperation cannot be promoted as planned, which may affect the subsequent development of supply chain enterprises. In recent interviews, many companies revealed to Gaspar that many car companies' orders were cancelled. It is understood that the reasons behind it are mainly concentrated in the following two points: First, affected by the epidemic, car companies have changed their new car plans and have no choice but to cancel orders; Second, suppliers are gradually marginalized from the previous single-point suppliers because of the lack of price negotiations.

Supply chain risk or "counterattack" car companies

Faced with the downward pressure of car companies' risks, some parts companies have taken action. It is reported that Bosch China has decided to collect interest from car companies that are in arrears from April 1 day. This may be a microcosm of the evolution of the relationship between companies and supply chain enterprises.

An industry veteran pointed out that the relationship between some car companies and supply chain companies may become "ugly". "The situation of default on payment for goods has long existed. Many suppliers continue to adhere to this model, mainly considering the endorsement of car enterprise project products. In addition, although some car companies extend the account period, they will sign some new projects. But now, things have changed. On the one hand, the financial situation of suppliers can no longer bear the default of car companies' payment. On the other hand, some suppliers are shrinking their business and giving up some non-quality customers and projects, which makes suppliers no longer worry about chasing money. "

He also added that the practice of supply chain enterprises will in turn affect car companies. For example, some parts suppliers selectively give up some customers or projects that are not optimistic, which may lead to the suspension of supply of some brands or models with poor benefits of many car companies. "It's not that they don't want to build it. They may want to build it but they can't build it."

Bao Zheng, vice president of the Volcker Group in Asia, also believes that the risk of car companies shifting to the supply chain is likely to "hit back" car companies. "Car companies want to pass the risky ball downstream, but the ball passed downstream may rebound and hit themselves."

"Some parts companies with strong financial capacity can take certain measures for car companies. For example, Bosch collects interest from car companies that are in arrears, but companies with poor financial conditions may face bankruptcy, especially those that only serve one or two brands. Suppliers. This is undoubtedly a risk for car companies. After all, if there is a problem in a certain part of the supply chain, it may affect the progress of the entire new car project. " Bao Zheng further explained.

He also pointed out that the behavior of car companies "opening two suppliers/three suppliers" is also infinitely expanding the risk of supply chain, which ultimately affects their own development. "When some high-quality foreign suppliers introduce some new technologies, some car companies don't respect intellectual property rights. After getting the technology, they turn to second-tier suppliers and third-tier suppliers, which makes foreign suppliers reluctant to introduce new technologies or cooperate with these enterprises, which is very unfavorable for the development of car companies themselves."

How to relieve nervousness?

From this perspective, car companies and supply chain companies seem to be caught in a vicious circle. It is not easy to break this vicious circle, and countries, industries and enterprises need to participate.

From the perspective of the country and industry, the person in charge of a local auto parts enterprise said that the state should liberalize the operating restrictions on auto companies and reduce their operating costs. "It is necessary to reduce taxes and fees"; The industry should encourage strong alliances and integrate mergers and acquisitions. Bao Zheng believes: "The state should focus on this part of the automobile supply chain, make use of some high-quality foreign supply chains or Sino-foreign joint venture supply chains, and introduce some policies to enable such enterprises to introduce R&D and new technologies into China, which can carry out good intellectual property protection."

Senior analyst of Geshi Automobile Research Institute further pointed out that the state should try its best to stabilize the automobile market and avoid a sharp decline. At the same time, we should invest in "chain protection" and "strong chain" on the supply chain security issue that the industry is most concerned about at present, and support excellent supply chain enterprises to make them bigger and stronger; The thinking of the industry should change from the original pursuit of growth to the pursuit of quality development, and help small and weak enterprises conditionally in the industry transformation, but the focus should also be on forming a group of car companies with market competitiveness.

In the process of easing the current situation, the practice of car companies is obviously crucial. Bao Zheng said that it is not advisable for car companies to transfer risks. "Car companies themselves should have a better mechanism to deal with financial risks, either seeking government support, private loans or bank financing. Solve the problem instead of doing nothing and pass all the risks on to downstream suppliers. " The person in charge of the above-mentioned local auto parts enterprises further pointed out that car companies should reduce the number of models, optimize classic models and realize platform production.

For supply chain enterprises, the most important thing to change the status quo is to strengthen their own strength. Only in this way can they have stronger ability to resist risks. Senior analyst of Geshi Automobile Research Institute pointed out that parts enterprises need to have a sense of crisis, and accelerate the promotion in product technology, manufacturing process, quality system, talent management and digital transformation, so that enterprises can upgrade together with the promotion of industry upgrading.

At the same time, supply chain enterprises should carefully choose customers. The above analyst said: "Now suppliers are beginning to pay attention to the health status of supporting car companies. In addition to the hard indicator of sales volume, suppliers are gradually paying attention to the changes in the financial situation, inventory level and enterprise management structure of car companies. Only after deeply understanding the actual situation of customers can we help these supporting enterprises to make corresponding business roles to avoid risks. "

In addition, an industry veteran also reminded supply chain enterprises to "open up sources and cut costs, open up more markets, avoid being dragged down by one or two car companies, and at the same time strengthen internal cost control and live a tight life".

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.