What is the basic direction of industrial structure adjustment in China?

The basic principle of China's future industrial structure adjustment (1) is conducive to improving the overall competitiveness of the country and the position of the industry in the global value chain. From the international comparison, China's overall industrial competitiveness is still in a low position, and there is a big gap with developed countries and even some developing countries in terms of efficiency level, R&D capability, capital and human capital strength, and market share. The position of industry in the global value chain often determines the overall competitiveness of a country's industry. Generally speaking, if the industry is in the upstream of the global value chain, such as R&D and design, then the industrial competitiveness is relatively strong; On the other hand, if the industry is in the downstream of the global value chain, such as assembly, then the industrial competitiveness is relatively weak. At present, in the global industrial division system, most industries in China are in the downstream of the global value chain. To improve the international competitiveness of the industry, it is necessary to upgrade the position of the industry in the global value chain. (2) It is conducive to maintaining rapid growth. Both theory and practice show that different industrial development strategies often have different growth performance. The adjustment, optimization and upgrading of industrial structure must be conducive to maintaining the sustained and rapid growth of the national economy. (three) closely combined with improving the technical level of the industry. At present, although China has made some breakthroughs in some high-tech industries, the technical level of China's industries is still relatively low. This is not only not conducive to improving China's position in the international division of labor, but also to fundamentally changing the mode of economic growth and realizing the sustainable development of economy, society and environment. Improving the technical level of industrial structure has two meanings: one is to develop some high-tech industries, the other is to transform traditional industries with high-tech, and to combine industrial structure adjustment with improving the technical level of industries. (4) It is beneficial to give full play to the advantages of human resources. China's total human resources is relatively large, which not only determines the advantage of relatively low labor costs in China, but also determines the relatively high employment pressure in China. Increasing the employment rate and making full use of China's human resources advantages are not only the needs of economic development, but also the important principles that should be followed in the adjustment, optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure in the future. Developing labor-intensive industries conforms to the characteristics of China's supply of resources and factors, and is conducive to solving the employment problem in China. Developing labor-intensive industries does not exclude technology-intensive industries. Many high-tech industries, such as computer software, technical services and information consulting services, are also labor-intensive industries. We should combine the development of labor-intensive industries with the development of high-tech industries (five) is conducive to saving resources and protecting the ecology. The basic national conditions of China are resource shortage, fragile ecological environment and small ecological capacity. In the future, according to the requirements of harmonious and sustainable development between man and nature, we should adjust, optimize and upgrade the industrial structure, reduce the total consumption of resources and energy and the total pollution discharge of the whole national economy, and promote the transformation of economic growth mode. (6) On the premise of actively participating in the international division of labor. China's future industrial structure adjustment, optimization and upgrading should be carried out under the background of active participation in globalization. First of all, China's rapid economic growth needs to rely on the international market to make up for the shortage of domestic raw materials and energy. Second, with the gradual improvement of China's position in the international division of labor system, China's industry will gradually move from a structure with a considerable proportion in the rough processing of natural resources to a structure dominated by other subsequent deep processing and deep processing along the industrial chain, which means that China needs to import international primary processed products. Third, some high-end equipment, instruments and key technologies needed for industrial upgrading in China still need to be imported from developed countries. Fourth, a large number of labor-intensive agricultural products and a large number of manufacturing products in China need to actively participate in the international division of labor in order to open the international market. The basic characteristics and existing problems of China's industrial structure evolution (1) The proportion of the secondary industry is high, but the internal technical level of the secondary industry is low and the overall competitiveness is not strong. Although the industrial structure has made some progress, the overall technical level is still not high. The medium-and high-tech industries in the manufacturing industry account for about half of the country, while the resource-based industries still occupy an important position, exceeding the share of high-tech industries. (2) The tertiary industry has developed rapidly, but it still cannot meet the requirements of national economic development, and its structure needs to be upgraded. As far as the internal composition of the tertiary industry is concerned, traditional sectors such as wholesale, retail trade and catering still occupy the largest proportion, while the proportion of modern service industry is too low. The key sectors of the tertiary industry (finance and scientific research) are backward, and the competitiveness of the tertiary industry needs to be strengthened. In addition, the proportion of added value of business service industry to GDP is still low, and the service level and efficiency of logistics industry are still low. (3) The industrial structure is developing in the direction of lighter energy consumption intensity and pollution intensity, but overall, the situation is still grim, and the overall energy consumption intensity of the industrial structure is still high. At the same time, due to the rapid growth of the economic aggregate, although the overall energy consumption intensity and pollution intensity of the industrial structure are declining, the total energy consumption and pollution emissions are still increasing, and the situation of energy conservation and environmental protection is still grim. (d) China's industrial development is increasingly integrated into the process of globalization, but it is still in the downstream of the value chain, mainly focusing on low value-added non-core parts manufacturing and labor-intensive assembly. (E) The leading role of employment has declined. On the one hand, the decline of employment elasticity is related to the change of industrial composition, and the proportion of labor-intensive industries has declined in recent years. On the other hand, it is also related to the change of employment intensity in different industries. Through data analysis, we can see that the employment intensity of output absorption in different industries is also decreasing year by year. Demand Factors Affecting the Changes of China's Future Industrial Structure According to the general law of economic development, in the market economy where the buyer's market is basically formed, the growth of demand and the changes of its structure are usually the dominant factors in the changes of industrial structure. (1) Domestic consumption demand Since the reform and opening up more than 20 years ago, while the consumption level has been greatly improved, the consumption structure of Chinese residents has also undergone significant changes. Specifically, this change has the following characteristics: First, the proportion of food consumption expenditure has decreased, while the proportion of service consumption expenditure has increased. The upgrading of consumption structure will directly promote the development of tertiary industry, stationery, communication products, transportation equipment and other manufacturing industries, and then promote the development of network infrastructure such as transportation and communication. Second, the demand market for basic necessities such as food, clothing, housing and transportation and durable consumer goods such as televisions and refrigerators is still huge, but the demand level will continue to increase. Third, the demand for high-priced consumer goods such as cars and houses is gradually released. The automobile industry plays a great role in pulling the whole national economy, and industries such as machinery, chemicals, electronics and services will be pulled by the growth of automobile consumption demand. The increase of housing consumption will drive the growth of metallurgy, building materials, decoration services and other industries. Fourth, health care consumption, knowledge consumption and information consumption will form a new wave. Fifth, the multi-level of consumer demand will further develop, and the multi-level of consumption structure also determines the multi-level of corresponding industrial structure. Sixth, the "wave growth" feature of consumption growth will continue for some time. Historically, the consumption growth in China has shown the characteristics of "wave exclusion". There are three decisive factors in the characteristics of "wave-discharging" consumption. (1) The growth of sales of many commodities in China has the nature of "making up lessons", that is, making up for the pent-up consumer demand before the reform and the initial stage of reform and opening up. Demand of this nature will often be released in a short time, resulting in "wave-out" consumption. (2) the consumer psychology of conformity and comparison, which also leads to the release of consumer demand in a short time. (3) the influence of special factors in the short term. For example, the rapid changes in housing in recent years are also related to the factors of housing reform. But the short-term influencing factors are unsustainable. With the gradual improvement of various reform policies related to residents' living welfare, the driving force of "make-up lessons" on the characteristics of "no waves" in consumption will gradually weaken; The short-term factors are unpredictable; But the psychology of conformity and comparison will work for a long time. The characteristics of "wave-draining" consumption often mislead people to judge the short-term consumption growth as a long-term trend, and then mislead the corresponding investment, so that investment and capacity expansion exceed demand. Therefore, the adjustment, optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the future must fully judge whether the growth momentum of commodity consumption is a short-term "wave discharge" or a long-term trend. The arrangement of industrial structure should not only meet the needs of "wave-like" growth of commodities in the short term; We should also avoid over-investment and overcapacity. (2) Domestic investment demand First, the improvement of industrialization will bring about structural changes in investment demand. China is in a historical period of rapid industrialization. With the advancement of industrialization, the demand for intermediate inputs and capital goods will continue to grow, thus driving the development of related industries. At the same time, we should also see that in the process of industrialization, the service input in the intermediate input of manufacturing industry has increased, and the boundary between service industry and some manufacturing industries is becoming less and less obvious. Some technological breakthroughs in manufacturing will open up some areas of service industry development. For example, after the improvement of mobile phone technology, telecom operators provide additional services beyond the basic functions of mobile phones. The promotion of industrialization will promote the development of service industry based on modernization. Second, the further improvement of infrastructure will drive the development of raw material industries such as steel and cement. Since the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening up, China's infrastructure level has been greatly improved. However, there is still a big gap between China and other countries in terms of infrastructure. This shows that the task of infrastructure construction in China is still arduous in the future. The construction of infrastructure will inevitably promote the development of related industries. Third, the improvement of urbanization level will bring more investment opportunities. According to the general law of economic development, China will enter a period of rapid urbanization in the future. Urban development will drive the growth of investment in tertiary industry, especially real estate and urban infrastructure construction, thus driving the development of basic raw material industry. (3) Export Demand Since the reform and opening up, the structure of China's export products has undergone great changes. The original pattern of primary resources and primary processed products has been gradually upgraded to the pattern of exporting low-and medium-tech manufacturing products. Most of these products are labor-intensive. In the future, especially during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, with the full implementation of the WTO agreement, the international market space of China's labor-intensive products may be further expanded. However, we should also see that in recent years, with China's labor-intensive products occupying more and more international markets, the developed countries think that the employment of their corresponding industries has been hit. Although the WTO agreement has provisions on open trade barriers, various hidden barriers will still have a great impact. This objectively requires China to upgrade its industrial structure and technical level, produce and export products with higher technical content, and avoid trade frictions. The direction and thinking of China's future industrial development (I) General direction The direction of industrial development depends not only on the basic national conditions and the foundation and conditions of economic development, but also on the external environment in which industrial development is located. The general direction of China's future industrial development is: (1) to form a relatively complete industrial structure system, and to develop both the material product manufacturing industry and the service product providing industry; It is necessary to develop both consumer goods manufacturing and means of production manufacturing. (2) In the process of building a relatively complete industrial structure system, special attention should be paid to the development of service industry. This is not only the need to increase employment, improve people's quality of life, promote the high-quality development of urbanization, but also the need to reduce transaction costs and improve the competitiveness of manufacturing industry. (3) In the field of strategic industries, we should grasp control, consolidate the position of agriculture as the foundation, vigorously develop energy and basic raw materials industries, and attach great importance to the development of important equipment manufacturing industries and new technology industries. (4) While fully developing labor-intensive industries, vigorously develop capital and technology-intensive industries. (5) In the world industrial division of labor system, constantly improve the position of industry in the global value chain. (II) Basic thinking The basic thinking of China's industrial development in the future is: under the guidance of the spirit of the 16th National Congress and the Third Plenary Session of the 16th National Congress, with the market as the basic means, supplemented by the necessary policy guidance, on the premise of making full use of the international and domestic markets and resources, and on the basis of continuous technological progress, gradually forming an industrial structure with obvious advantages in human resources, high utilization efficiency of natural resources, good ecological environment protection, strong upgrading power and effective protection of national economic and political security. -take the market as the basic means. At present, many problems in China's industrial development, such as the rapid development of industries with high energy consumption and high pollution, are mostly related to the inadequate reform and the fact that prices cannot correctly reflect the scarcity of resources. When the price of scarce resources is distorted and lower than its true value, it will inevitably stimulate enterprises to use these scarce resources in large quantities, resulting in inefficient use of these resources and even a lot of waste; When enterprises are in a monopoly position or subsidized by soft budget constraints, enterprises also have full enthusiasm to hoard scarce resources and consume a lot; Therefore, we must give full play to the basic role of the market in allocating resources. -supplemented by necessary policy guidance. Some strategic industries with strong externalities can not develop well only by market forces, and must be supplemented by policy guidance and support. -On the premise of making full use of international and domestic markets and resources. As a populous country, China has huge domestic market demand potential. This objectively creates favorable domestic demand conditions for some industries with significant economies of scale to realize the transformation from "naive" to "mature", and we should make full use of this condition. On the other hand, the deepening of globalization will create more possibilities for China to participate in the international industrial division. -based on the continuous progress of technology. On the one hand, we should develop high-tech industries, especially IT industries, new materials, new energy, biological industries and marine industries with obvious technology spillover effects. On the other hand, we should transform traditional industries with high technology. Compared with developed countries, China has obvious advantages in intellectual resources and intellectual cost of R&D activities. We should take advantage of China's advantages, undertake some non-capital-intensive links in the field of technology research and development, and participate in the development of global high-tech industries through China to share the benefits of technological progress. -Strong motivation to upgrade. The upgrading of industrial structure has a strong driving force, which is not only reflected in the full play of comparative advantages, but also in the continuous growth of new competitive industries and the continuous improvement of the status of industries in the global value chain. -National political and economic security has been effectively guaranteed. The state must control strategic industries. -A relatively complete and fully open industrial structure system. Relatively complete, that is to say, from the perspective of industrial categories, all kinds of industries should have different degrees of development. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, we should pay special attention to the development of service industry, especially producer service industry. Starting with optimizing the service industry structure, we will strengthen the restructuring and transformation of transportation, commerce and trade circulation, catering, public utilities, agricultural services and other industries, promote the development of organizational forms and service methods such as chain operation, franchising, logistics distribution, agency system and e-commerce, and improve service quality and operating efficiency; Actively develop real estate, property management, tourism, community services, education and training, culture, sports and other industries with great demand potential to form new economic growth points; Vigorously develop intermediary services such as information, finance, insurance, accounting, consulting, legal services and scientific and technological services, and improve the service level and technical content. Full opening means making full use of the opportunity of global industrial division and reorganization to accelerate the pace of industrial structure upgrading.