Inventory of auto market in 2020: the sales trend of V auto market \ \ New forces reshuffle in an all-round way \ \ Car enterprises are seriously polarized.

Time flies, and the year 2020 will be over in a blink of an eye. For the automobile market in China, this year is full of setbacks and challenges. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the automobile market sales in the first half of this year were bleak. Although automobile enterprises have taken corresponding measures, the direct impact on the whole industry is still very huge. In February this year, automobile sales in China even fell to the lowest monthly level since the 20th century. However, in addition to the epidemic, there are many industry events that deserve our attention.

Auto market sales hit a record low in February? Remarkable recovery in the second half of the year

Since 20 18, the China automobile market has entered the downward channel, and the "cold spot" of the automobile market did not appear until last year. In 20 18, Suzuki completely withdrew from the China market. In 20 19, the sales performance of the automobile market was better? Bleak. Data show that domestic automobile sales totaled 20.652 million last year, down 9.7% year-on-year.

To describe the China auto market in 2020 in one sentence is "it rained all night". As we also wrote in the previous article, the production and sales of automobiles dropped significantly in June from 5,438+10, which was17.83 million and19410 million, respectively, down 24.6% and 65,438+year-on-year. The bad news doesn't stop there. On March 9, the National Passenger Car Market Information Association held a seminar on February's automobile market and released an analysis report on February's passenger car market. The data shows that in February 2020, the retail volume of passenger cars in China reached 252,000, which was 78.5% lower than that in February 2009. Due to the influence of the Spring Festival, it was 19% lower than that in February 2009, which was an ultra-low base and also created a new low in this century. From June 5438 to February, the retail sales decreased by 4 1.0% year-on-year, and the persistence of the epidemic made the already weak China automobile market "worse".

As for dealers, in the first three weeks of February, the number of stores opened by dealers around the country slowly picked up, and the number of dealers was small, which was still in the rest period. During this period, dealers increased their online marketing efforts, including VR exhibition hall, car sales live broadcast, WeChat group construction and other sales and after-sales services. However, due to the bleak demand and limited travel of consumers, the sales situation of dealers was generally weak in February, and it was difficult to withdraw the funds occupied by inventory, and the financial pressure continued to increase.

In the second half of this year, when the industry came out of the shock, it still experienced an adaptation period, and the sales volume of the automobile market did not show an obvious upward trend. However, after entering July, the pent-up consumption desire rebounded to a certain extent, and the sales volume gradually increased in the second half of this year, which finally made the sales curve of the automobile market in 2020 go out of the V-shape.

The new forces of building cars have completely shuffled? Those naked swimmers after the low tide.

The overall downward trend of the new energy market in the first half of the year has become an inevitable trend. If we want to survive in the crisis, the industry will inevitably face reshuffle and reorganization. Among them, car companies and power battery companies will probably face the most severe difficulties. For the new forces making cars, the problems to be faced are more complicated. For the current situation of most new forces making cars, bicycle profit has not yet been realized, and capital financing is becoming more and more difficult. In this case, the new car-making forces need a new model to break the deadlock, at least to revitalize the cash flow to support their continued delivery.

Car-making industry is a traditional industry that integrates technology, talents and scale effect. Compared with the accumulation of traditional big-name car companies for decades or even hundreds of years, some new car-making forces still need to slowly accumulate and precipitate. The great leap forward-style way of building cars often makes enterprises get into trouble, and few can really succeed.

Behind the collective crisis of the new forces building cars, the "tearing feeling" brought about by the rapid development of the industry is exposed. Although it will not hit the south wall like LeTV's "blindfolded running", the difficulties in car quality, financing difficulties and corporate losses still make the situation of the new forces unclear. At the same time, it also reflects the deep-seated crisis of trust faced by the industry after the epidemic, and the ebb tide of capital under "post-globalization", which also makes it more and more difficult for domestic new forces to move forward. Although the market in China is huge, the reality is cruel. How to break through all kinds of "barriers", reduce enterprise risks and realize market profitability as soon as possible is the key.

Traditional car companies frequently withdraw from the market? The weaker car companies are in deep recession.

In 2020, a sudden black swan incident became the last straw to crush automobile brands. On April 14 this year, Dongfeng Motor Group announced that in view of the decline of the domestic automobile market and the operating conditions of Dongfeng Renault, both the company and Renault intend to reorganize Dongfeng Renault. The two sides signed a non-binding memorandum and reached a preliminary intention. Renault intends to transfer its 50% equity of Dongfeng Renault to the company, and Dongfeng Renault will stop its business activities related to the Renault brand. Since Dongfeng Renault was dissolved and delisted, China automobile market has entered the elimination period of survival of the fittest.

Also in this year, Nazhijie brand announced its withdrawal from the Chinese mainland market. Dongfeng Group has reached an agreement with Yulong Group that Nazhijie brand will withdraw from the Chinese mainland market, so as to further reduce costs and complete the transformation. 20 10 In September, Yulong Automobile and Dongfeng Motor formally established Dongfeng Yulong Automobile Company, each holding 50% of the shares, and producing Nazhijie brand in the mainland market by way of joint venture. The main reason is that vehicle quality control has always been the weakness of the brand, but the high fuel consumption problem of Nazhijie models has not been solved for a long time, and the scale of domestic dealers is very small, which gradually loses its position in the eyes of domestic consumers and finally has to choose to withdraw from the China market.

Following the collapse of Zotye, Lifan, Cheetah, Na Zhijie, Renault, DS, Baiteng and Brilliance. But before he could conquer, Hanlong Automobile announced that it would stop production and lay off employees. Hanlong Automobile may not know who it is, but Zotye Automobile is a household name. Hanlong automobile should be the back road of Zotye, but it didn't play the role of raiders. Judging from the model design of Hanlong, Hanlong is still following the old road of Zotye, imitating the mature model design of the cottage, and the market is also very real. With the decline of Zotye, Hanlong followed in Zotye's footsteps.

With the economic downturn and the gradual slowdown of market increment, China automobile market is entering a new stage of stock competition. Affected by the epidemic, China will face a severe test of macro-economy and automobile market. From the perspective of industry structure, the concentration of the market is constantly improving, and weak brands are facing elimination. The new forces continue to "storm", and traditional car companies have no choice but to withdraw from the market. The market is cruel. Every enterprise lives by the law of the jungle. Compassion and pity can't help enterprises get out of the predicament, but they are the proper performance of excellent enterprises to face the crisis and move forward calmly.

International Auto Show "Three Exhibition Linkages"? Stimulate the auto market to pick up.

For the second half of 2020, auto show is definitely a mainstream word in the auto market. After all, during the epidemic, many auto shows were forced to be postponed. Now with the gradual improvement of the epidemic, the auto show will also return. In the second half of this year, the three most mainstream auto shows in China will appear one after another, such as Chengdu Auto Show in July, Beijing Auto Show in September and Guangzhou Auto Show 5438+065438+ 10 in June. The opening of these heavy auto shows will undoubtedly promote the consumption of the automobile industry. For consumers, the auto show also ushered in the best time to buy a car.

Under the influence of the epidemic, the situation of "three exhibitions linkage" appeared for the first time in history. After experiencing a huge impact, the automobile industry suddenly found that the stage ahead was very big. With the help of three consecutive auto shows, it is possible to tell consumers the truth, and perhaps new opportunities in the post-epidemic era are just around the corner. By visiting three consecutive auto shows this year, we can easily find that the auto market is polarized under the influence of the decline in sales in 20 18 and the epidemic in 2020. Marginal car companies are struggling to survive, their heads are subverting themselves, second-line joint ventures are struggling, and new car-making forces are also leading the way.

In the eyes of the industry, in the process of the development of the whole automobile to the new four modernizations, if the investment in related fields is not increased, the products may not keep up with the needs of the times. Therefore, we have seen that these head car companies have the courage to break through the limitations of the inherent framework and forge ahead through continuous technological upgrading in the stormy market. On the other hand, second-tier joint venture brands have a hard time this year. They have to face the downward pressure on the prices of first-line car companies and the upward breakthrough of their own brands. Such a "three-splint" situation also puts second-tier joint venture car companies in an awkward position.

To say that this auto show gives us the impression of "polarization", the car companies with weak strength and poor management in the market directly withdraw from the auto show, while the powerful car companies are still on the scene with all kinds of new cars, which also reflects the overall status quo of the auto market.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.