Consumption upgrading and upgrading direction

Consumption upgrading and upgrading direction

Investment, export and consumption have always been the troika for China's economic growth. In a long period of time, the pulling effect of investment is more obvious. With the new normal of economy, the pulling effect of investment is gradually declining, and the role of consumption is constantly emerging. The just released 20 18 national economic statistical bulletin shows that consumption has become the first driving force for China's economic growth for five consecutive years, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 76.2%, up by 18.6 percentage points over the previous year and 43.8 percentage points over the total capital formation. However, it should be noted that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 20 18 was 38,098.7 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0% over the previous year. The consumption growth rate in China is slowing down, which is the first time since 2004 that the zero social growth rate has fallen below double digits.

The slowdown in consumption growth has caused a debate in society about whether consumption should be upgraded or downgraded. However, whether upgrading or downgrading, we are concerned about the increasingly prominent role of consumption in promoting economic development, especially in the environment of sluggish investment and increasingly complex foreign trade environment. The focus of steady growth is consumption upgrading.

The upgrading of consumption includes at least two aspects. One is the upgrading of original consumer goods, especially durable consumer goods. With the rapid development of mobile Internet technology, the trend of smart consumption represented by home appliances is becoming more and more obvious, which is an upgrade of durable consumer goods such as traditional home appliances. The other is the upgrading of consumer demand. According to Maslow's consumer demand theory, people will pursue spiritual demand after meeting the material consumption demand, and spiritual demand is more reflected in service consumption. At present, China's consumption development has both hard demand for upgrading traditional consumer goods and soft demand beyond material demand, which requires precise policies to promote consumption upgrading.

It is necessary to continue to promote structural reforms on the supply side, improve product quality, and meet the upgrading needs of traditional consumer goods. The data shows that China has entered the peak period of household appliances scrapping, with an average annual increase of 20%. The consumption demand and potential in this respect are enormous. The main reason why consumption has not surged is that supply has not kept up with the mismatch between supply and demand. Actively develop the tertiary industry, build a multi-level and diversified service system, constantly improve the infrastructure of service consumption for different consumer groups, and create a social environment conducive to consumption.

In addition, we should pay attention to the structural adjustment of government expenditure. The data shows that in 20 17, the government and its state-owned companies spent 23 trillion yuan, but the expenditure on public education, public medical care and social security was less than 7 trillion yuan. Government expenditure is the bulk of consumption. With the continuous promotion of decentralization, strengthening supervision and improving service reform, government functions have changed to service-oriented governments, and social security and public service expenditures should increase. On the one hand, it directly expands consumer spending, on the other hand, it is also inducing more residents to consume through social security. According to the theory of money demand, residents have three motives for holding money. One is transactional demand, which is the most basic demand to meet the needs of daily life; One is preventive demand, which is mainly used for unexpected expenses such as sudden diseases and accidents; One is speculative demand, mainly used for investment. The increase in social security expenditure is to reduce the preventive needs of residents, thus increasing the income that residents can use for consumption.

It is not difficult to see that expanding investment channels is also an important part of consumption upgrading. If there is no channel for residents to accumulate wealth as an export, they will either lie on their books and wait for inflation to devour their wealth in vain, or take risks and wander on the edge of laws and regulations. This corresponds to more diversified investment and wealth management services. On the one hand, financial institutions are required to return to their origins and build a multi-level and diversified product system so that more residents can enjoy asset management services. On the other hand, it requires a richer money supply and demand market system, such as direct financing market, so that more supply and demand can be met in time.

To upgrade consumption, we must tap the potential of rural areas. Data display? In 20 18, the retail sales of rural consumer goods exceeded 5.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 10. 1%, and the growth rate of rural consumption exceeded that of urban consumption for seven consecutive years. In 20 18, the online retail sales of rural areas nationwide were 1.37 trillion yuan, up 30.4% year-on-year, and the online retail sales of agricultural products nationwide were 230.5 billion yuan, up 33.8% year-on-year. Rural e-commerce has developed rapidly. The consumption potential in rural areas is huge, but there are shortcomings such as imperfect logistics system and imperfect transportation system. Efforts should be made to fill the shortcomings of relevant infrastructure and tap the consumption potential of the rural market.